Now he warns Bitcoin is entering a Bear market
BTC already dropped 20% vs Gold since August peak
Here's what it means and when BTC dumps to $50K
➠ 1
◈ Bitcoin’s core narrative has always been “digital gold”
◈ That comparison isn’t just metaphorical - it’s financial infrastructure
◈ If BTC is to serve as a sovereign hedge, it must behave like gold
◈ But the current BTC/XAU ratio shows that this parity is breaking
➠ 2
◈ Since August 2024, gold has surged to fresh all-time highs
◈ Meanwhile, BTC has dropped over 20% against gold in that same period
◈ This suggests that while gold is gaining global trust, BTC is losing it
◈ For reserve consideration, that divergence is fatal
➠ 3
◈ In 2021, Bitcoin briefly outperformed gold on a 3-year chart
◈ That led many analysts and hedge funds to call BTC “superior to gold”
◈ But since then, gold has returned to stability - BTC has not
◈ Today, most multi-asset models once again overweight gold
➠ 4
◈ Why does gold matter so much?
◈ Because central banks buy gold, not BTC
◈ Because gold has 5,000 years of monetary precedent
◈ Because gold is liquid, regulated, and geopolitically neutral
➠ 5
◈ For Bitcoin to be considered “digital gold,” parity must hold over time
◈ That doesn’t mean identical price movements
◈ But it does mean similar macro behavior: resilience, low drawdown, long-term appreciation
◈ BTC still behaves like a risk asset, not a monetary base
➠ 6
◈ The recent divergence also breaks the confidence of sovereign actors
◈ Trump’s BTC reserve talks faded when BTC broke its gold parity
◈ China’s sovereign wealth fund reportedly halted BTC exposure in Q3
◈ They want stability, not speculation
➠ 7
◈ The volatility spread between BTC and gold remains enormous
◈ In 2024, BTC had a 70-day realized volatility of 38%
◈ Gold’s 70-day volatility during the same period was under 11%
◈ No central bank can justify those risk metrics on their balance sheet
➠ 8
◈ Even the narrative of “store of value” is weakening
◈ Gold ETFs are reaching record inflows again - BTC ETFs are flattening
◈ Stablecoins are gaining more traction than BTC for transactional infrastructure
◈ Bitcoin risks becoming a legacy crypto product, not a monetary upgrade
➠ 9
◈ To truly achieve parity with gold, BTC would need:
- Custody structures that match sovereign-grade vaulting
- Legal clarity in cross-border ownership
- Decoupling from tech stocks and risk-on flows
- Institutional coordination, not just ETF marketing
➠ 10
◈ The path to BTC as a reserve asset still exists - but it’s uphill
◈ Until Bitcoin can behave like gold under stress, it won’t be treated like gold
◈ Every 20% drop vs gold is a reminder: BTC’s maturity is incomplete
◈ And in the current macro regime, that’s a deal-breaker for adoption
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
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