The trading system is not about ensuring you win, but about controlling losses.
If I have a trading system, even a positive expected value system, can I keep making profits? Absolutely not. A trading system is not about avoiding mistakes, nor is it about never incurring losses; it’s about controlling losses and keeping potential black swan events within an acceptable range to achieve long-term stability.
No one can accurately predict the future movements of the market in any single instance; this is beyond doubt. However, if your trading system is decent, amidst gains and losses, having small gains and small losses, and some large gains, then that’s sufficient. In other words, in large sample cases, as long as the final result remains positive expected value, that is enough.
"There is no inherently effective" relative effectiveness; this is also the value of a trading system. $BTC