Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the US stock index have diverged. In the absence of substantial bad news, this divergence usually indicates: clearing high leverage, securing profits, and interest rate cuts being fulfilled. It is evident that the market hasn't fully dropped.

In the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount in the crypto market has reached $1.71 billion, BTC has fallen by 3%, ETH has dropped by 10%, and the liquidation amount exceeded the 2021 519 black swan event.

Although it seems exaggerated for newcomers, old players are used to it. Compared to the 519 incident back in the day, BTC dropped by 30% and ETH by 40%, and a halving is common. Now the market size is larger, and the fluctuations are far less intense than in the past. The current daily K-line drop is only equivalent to the K-line of the past 15 minutes. The liquidation amount in Ethereum is about twice that of BTC, and for spot holders, liquidating leverage is actually beneficial for market health. Market volatility is the norm, and the fundamentals remain unchanged.


BTC


Bitcoin is currently in a bearish trend across the mid to short indicators, requiring time to see the main direction of the indicators, which is currently continuing a trend of oscillating downward towards support!



From the four-hour chart, Bitcoin has broken multiple support levels, falling to a low of 111400 before a brief weak rebound, forming a long upper shadow doji candlestick, indicating strong pressure above and weak rebound momentum. Key focus today is on the resistance area of 113000-113500.

Action: Short near the rebound around 113300, defend at 114100, target to see around 111300-111700, break down to see around 110800-111000, if it doesn't break, go long.


ETH


Although Ethereum held the 4105 support level in the early hours, it is temporarily stable, but this is just a brief consolidation during the downtrend, making it difficult to confirm the bottom in the short term. Therefore, seizing the opportunity to quickly exit long positions is the best choice!


Ethereum's daily line has retreated from a high, closing with a long upper shadow candlestick on September 22, showing significant selling pressure. It has fallen for two consecutive days, from 4450 to 4100, then rebounding to oscillate around 4200. If it cannot break through the resistance of 4220-4250, it may further drop to 4000. MACD shows weakening bullish momentum, bears dominate.




Action: Short near the rebound around 4250, defend at 4300, target to see around 4150-4130, break down to see around 4040-4075, if it doesn't break, go long.


Shitcoin


The market will prioritize eliminating a batch of people, those who stubbornly hold onto shitcoins, waiting for the 'shitcoin season'. In the future, as the number of shitcoins increases, funds will chase new coins and mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, etc. Shitcoins can be replaced, mainstream coins cannot.


BNB

Focus on the 998 level, a steady position above 998 on the 1-hour chart counts as a rebound, resistance levels 1013/1037/1053. If it doesn't hold above 998, the rebound is weak, support levels 977/963/950.

SOL

Focus on the 221 level, a steady position above 221 on the 1-hour chart counts as a rebound, resistance levels 224/228/233. If it doesn't hold above 221, the rebound is weak, support levels 216/212/206.

Analyze the recent star projects in the derpDEX track.


In the second half of 2025, the derivatives DEX track will be dominated by Hyperliquid, and new projects can only break through by differentiation.


$ASTER: Backed by B, 1000x leverage attracts bold players, the first day saw a surge in traffic. Future plans include building a public chain, shifting potential from attracting volume to establishing a true ecosystem.


$AVNT: Connecting DeFi with real-world assets, zero-fee contracts only take a cut when profit is made, attracting high-frequency traders. Focused on the RWA narrative, aiming to bring real assets on-chain.


$DRIFT: An established derivatives project on Solana, strong technology, the trident liquidity system is top-notch in the industry. Steady and strong, attracting institutional participation.


Summary: Aster focuses on traffic, Avantis emphasizes narrative, Drift relies on technology. Each of the three routes has its own characteristics, whether they can challenge Hyperliquid remains to be seen. But at least we can see the future three routes of DEX: traffic strategy, narrative strategy, and technology strategy.


UXLINK was attacked by hackers, plummeting 80%


The team front-footed to handle issues, but back-footed issued 1 billion tokens. Initially thought it was a common incident of the treasury being hacked, but later found out that the makeshift team lost ownership. The hacker holds more than 900 million tokens, but the market pool is empty, making it hard to offload.

UXLINK once surged after being listed on Upbit, attracting Korean investors, but now many question the project team's 'self-theft', staging the attack to offload tokens. Especially the day before posting hints that 'something big is coming', which is intriguing.