SEPTEMBER CURSE IS BACK!
While everyone was busy buying aster, btc hit lowest volatility in year. Todays $1.5B flush is how it starts.
Here's my playbook for next days (bonus inside)
WEEKLY LANDSCAPE:
BTC holds well > 50w SMA $99K and 200w SMA $53K.
7-week SPX correlation = -0.02 → basically zero.
BTC’s chart is its own right now.
Okay but what does it really mean?
JUST LOOK AT DAILY CANDLES:
BTC trades $112,900, barely clinging to trend support.
200d BPRO = $112.2K, 200d SMA = $103.6K.
Momentum weak (RSI 45, 50d momentum 50).
Trend feels heavy and
VOLATILITY IS SET TO RIP
ATR = 2,300 → lowest volatility in a year.
Price is calm on the surface, but beneath it traders just lost billions.
Low vol + high liquidations = tinderbox.
Shall we look at short term now?
IT'S JUST FLIPPED BEARISH:
Resistance: High Band = $117.5K–$118.1K.
Support: Low Band = $113K–$113.8K.
CTF flipped to bear mode < $116.9K, HTF bull > $111.3K.
It's getting intense.
And mood is deteriorating.
FEAR IS BACK:
Fear & Greed dropped to 45 (fear territory).
Markets flipped cautious right after longs got nuked.
Greed fades quick when $1.5B disappears in hours.
Classic pre-breakout setup or we go deeper?
History says buy the fear.
If there only was a pattern...
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ON-CHAIN STILL BULLISH:
NUPL: 0.535 (belief phase, not euphoria)
MVRV: 2.26 (room to pump)
Mining cost: $99.5k vs price $112.9k (13% premium)
Fundamentals = still send mode.
But we're not out of the woods yet.
SEPTEMBER CURSE IS BACK?!
-55% annualized September performance playing out.
Average gain = -6.2%.
We're +4.08% MTD but trend is flipping (as it should).
We're approaching Bitcoin's strongest months.
Timing matters.
#BinanceHODLer0G #MarketPullback #GoldHitsRecordHigh #FedRateCut25bps #CircleIPO $BNB