XRP struggled to maintain its upward momentum after rising 18% in early September (the token price increased from $2.70 to $3.18). Nevertheless, XRP still found it difficult to break through the $3.20 barrier, facing resistance at a key level, and subsequently retracing to test the $3 support level. The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve exacerbated the pullback of XRP, failing to push it past $3.18, resulting in a continued weakness in the short term and a retest of the $3 support level. Additionally, XRP struggled to stay above the 50-day simple moving average, increasing the selling pressure. Futures trader DOM pointed out the importance of the $3.12 level, which bulls failed to hold earlier this week. This level is crucial for XRP's potential advancement to $3.30, with the immediate resistance now at $3.30. Any significant surge would require reclaiming the $3.18 level. Despite these challenges, broader market indicators suggest a continued bullish outlook for XRP. On-chain data shows that XRP exhibits a strong accumulation trend between $2.70 and $3.00, indicating that investors are positioning for potential gains rather than exiting the market. After profit-taking in July and early August, changes in net positions since August 22 have supported this accumulation trend. The realized profit-loss ratio also highlights a transitional phase, with July experiencing the most significant profit-taking of this cycle, followed by a decline. However, this ratio has recently surged to its highest level since November 2024, indicating that much of the previous selling pressure has been absorbed. Coupled with the increase in net positions, this suggests a positive long-term outlook for XRP. Moreover, XRP's market fractal pattern remains a bullish indicator. The current pattern aligns with the structure of the first quarter. The low of $2.70 coincides with the Fibonacci golden pocket line. This fractal indicates that XRP is following its expected cyclical pattern, potentially laying the foundation for a rebound of 60% to 85% in the fourth quarter.

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