Today the market has slightly corrected, and many alpha projects that previously surged have been caught off guard by the sudden drop. Let's discuss the current market situation and touch on the upcoming opportunities and risks.
Tomorrow marks the start of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, but the results won’t be out until the early hours of the day after tomorrow. The market generally expects a 25 basis point cut, with a probability exceeding 90%—and this expectation has already been reflected in the recent market conditions. Therefore, as long as there is no unexpected 50 basis point cut, the market is unlikely to see major fluctuations.
Speaking of the interest rate cut cycle, the current U.S. dollar interest rate is actually not low; this round of rate cuts might just be halfway through. Many people will ask, does this mean the crypto market will no longer follow the four-year cycle and keep rising? I have mentioned my view before: it is more prudent to respond to the second half of the year according to the four-year cycle. Especially at the current pace, there is a significant possibility that the market will go crazy in October. If mainstream coins make another big leap, Bitcoin could surge to 140,000 USD, and Ethereum could break 6,000 USD or even higher. For those of us who are fully invested in the 2,000-3,000 USD range, there is no reason not to take profits and exit.
Every bull market has people shouting 'the eternal bull market has arrived', but the more it is like this, the more U.S. dollars you should prepare to pave the way for the subsequent bear market. In my opinion, the cryptocurrency market has not yet reached the stage where it can walk a long-term slow bull.
Looking at today's specific market: after a rise yesterday, the market slightly corrected today. However, Bitcoin is still stable above $115,000, Ethereum has fallen below $4,600, and BNB has only dropped around $20, the overall upward trend remains intact. Who knows, maybe after the 25 basis point rate cut is implemented, the market can start a new round of increases.
Currently, the market is still revolving around hot altcoins. I won't talk about PUMP and WLFI, which previously surged in the alpha sector, that was a small climax yesterday, and today many projects have quickly pulled back. This is also the reason I've always said this type of coin is hard to play—there are no signs before the rise, and after the rise, it can be halved at any time, making it difficult for ordinary people to grasp.
Many people are concerned about when the funds will return to mainstream coins, or rotate to those relatively stable old altcoins? It is estimated that it will take some time, generally, the hype around new coins can last for a few weeks, and there should be changes next month. Looking at the trends of old coins like Dogecoin, funds have already started to enter the market yesterday, but whether it can sustain is still uncertain. So if you want to ambush old altcoins, it's best to wait for them to pull back again, and don't put too much weight on positions right now.
To be honest, whether you can make money in a bull market depends on the effort put in during the previous accumulation phase, and the remaining effort mostly has to be spent on taking profits—don't end up gaining nothing at the end.
Thank you all for the attention and likes for Zhao Zhao, I will talk to everyone about any new developments later.
