In the turbulent waves of the crypto market, the fluctuations are not the end, but the starting point of a new storm! Recently, the crypto market has been like a roller coaster, with all kinds of news flying around, and prices jumping up and down. Ethereum, in particular, is caught in the 'eye of the storm' with intense battles between bulls and bears. The price level of 4270 is like a life-and-death checkpoint, where both sides are fiercely contesting. Tonight's PPI data might just be the 'golden rod' that can pierce through this layer of paper!
Message: The macro drama, PPI becomes the key 'supporting role'
Recently, the world has become a complete mess. Israel attacked Hamas leaders in Qatar, and the U.S. non-farm employment data is outrageously bad, with the initial value missing expectations by more than 200,000 and down by more than 300,000 from the previous value. One would think that either of these pieces of news could shake the market, but Ethereum is like a 'calm brother,' steadily holding at the critical support level of 4270.
Why is it so stable? I think the market's focus is now on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 18. Everyone is eagerly waiting for the Fed to cut rates to give risk assets a 'boost'. QCP Capital also mentioned that the market expects the U.S. to cut rates by about 72 basis points for the rest of the year; this news is like a fire in winter for risk assets, warming them up.
However, tonight's 8:30 PPI data must not be underestimated. This data is like a 'time bomb' that could explode the market at any moment. Do you remember August 14? The U.S. PPI annual rate was as high as 3.3%, far exceeding market expectations, and ETH slid down like on a slide, dropping from 4737 USD to 4567 USD in just 26 minutes, a drop of 3.59%. If tonight’s data exceeds expectations again, the market will surely panic, and concerns about rising inflation will follow, causing the market to suffer; if the data is relatively mild, the Fed's reasons for cutting rates will be even stronger, and the market might go up on this tailwind.
Technical Analysis: A tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with key price levels determining the outcome.
From a technical chart perspective, ETH is currently at a crossroads; 4290 is a key level, with critical points on both sides.
In terms of support, 4270 is like a solid defense line; if it breaks, it could be dangerous, and 4220 or even 4200 might be tested. However, there is stronger support in the 4215 - 4250 USD range, acting like a 'safety cushion' that can backstop prices.
In terms of resistance, 4380 is a recent 'roadblock'; if it can break through, then 4400 or even 4450 could be achieved. The bigger resistance lies at the psychological level of 4500 USD, which is like a mountain that's not easy to climb over.
Looking at the technical indicators, they are indeed varied, and the signals are a jumble. The hourly MACD is running in bearish territory, and short-term momentum seems a bit weak; the RSI indicator is close to 50, neither overbought nor oversold, like a 'fence-sitter' with potential for movement in either direction; the moving average system is also amusing, with prices hovering near the 20-day and 50-day EMA, as these two moving averages are like two 'goalkeepers', tightly holding the prices in place.
Personal opinion: A struggle between bulls and bears, opportunities and risks coexist.
In my opinion, Ethereum is like walking on a tightrope right now, with both bulls and bears cautiously testing the waters. The short-term trend is indeed unclear, but from a fundamental perspective, Ethereum still has many highlights. On-chain data shows that a whale bought 86.8 million USD worth of ETH and transferred it all into staking contracts, indicating that large funds are optimistic about Ethereum's long-term prospects. The exchange fund flow data is also interesting, with a net inflow of 5.87 million USD on September 9, reversing the outflow trend that persisted until the end of August; it seems investors are preparing for potential volatility. Institutions are also active, with corporate treasuries increasing their holdings by 2 million ETH within 30 days, bringing their total holdings to 4.71 million, worth about 20.2 billion USD, which indicates that institutional investors still recognize Ethereum's value.
However, we cannot let our guard down. Tonight's PPI data is like a 'time bomb' that could change the market direction at any moment. If the data exceeds expectations, panic may ensue, causing the market to plummet; if the data is mild, market confidence may recover, and prices could potentially rise. So, we must be careful and prudent while trading, managing our position risks well.
Today's trading strategy: range trading, flexible response.
Based on the current market environment and technical analysis, I believe ETH will likely oscillate in the 4270 - 4380 range today.
Aggressive investors can take a small long position near the current price of 4290, targeting the 4330 - 4350 area, with a stop loss set below 4260. If the price breaks through the 4380 resistance with volume, then follow up with long positions, targeting the 4420 - 4450 area.
Conservative investors can wait for a rebound to the 4360 - 4380 area to short, targeting the 4320 - 4280 area, with a stop loss set above 4400. If the price breaks below the 4270 support, then reverse and short, targeting the 4220 - 4200 area.
No matter what strategy you adopt, you must strictly control position risk, with single trade losses not exceeding 2% of the principal. The market may experience increased volatility before and after the PPI data release tonight, so it is advisable to reduce position sizes or set wider stop losses to guard against sudden fluctuations.
The market will never lack opportunities; it only lacks the eyes to discover them. The current market is in the calm before the storm, and tonight's PPI data could become the trigger to ignite the market!
Regardless of which direction the market breaks out, it will create significant trading opportunities. Follow my latest analysis for real-time market interpretations and trading strategies—click to follow, and you won't get lost!\u003ct-44/\u003e
