Data can be fabricated, but market sentiment does not lie!
Tonight at 10 PM, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will wield the 'big knife'—the initial value of the 2025 non-farm employment benchmark change is about to be announced! The market generally expects that the employment data from the past year (April 2024 - March 2025) will be significantly revised downwards, with the median expectation being a downward revision of 800,000 jobs, and extreme predictions could even exceed 1.25 million! What does this mean? The 'false prosperity' of the U.S. job market will be thoroughly exposed!
Why is this data having a 'nuclear bomb-level' impact?
'Annual calibration' is more lethal than 'monthly data'
Monthly non-farm payrolls are a sample survey with a large margin of error; this time, it is based onunemployment insurance contribution records (covering 95% of jobs)to 'calibrate' the data from the past 12 months, equivalent to performing a 'CT scan' on the job market—the 800,000 jobs reported over the past year will be 'dug out' tonight!Is the Federal Reserve's 'rate cut script' going to be rewritten?
The market originally expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September (92% probability), but if employment data is significantly revised downwards,the alert for 'economic recession' will sound directly!The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut may soar, potentially triggering a global asset 'repricing'—the dollar plummets, gold soars, and tech stocks in the U.S. are 'bloodied'.Meanwhile, BTC, as 'digital gold', may directly break through 115000!The 'final carnival' for shorts?
If the downward revision of data is lower than expected (for example, only a revision of 300,000), the market will think 'the job market is not that bad',shorts may take the opportunity to counterattack, and the risk of a BTC short-term correction increases.. But Shen Ce is going to pour cold water on that:Mainstream institutions have long bet on downward revisions; if shorts dare to crash the market, bulls will directly 'raid'!
Technical analysis + news: Where is BTC's 'death line'?
Key level: 112000 is still the 'bull-bear showdown point'.
Holding above 112000: If employment data is revised down, it will be interpreted by the market as a 'dovish signal', causing BTC to rise directly, targeting 115000-116000;
Breaking below 112000: Shorts have a temporary advantage, but strong support below at 110000 (Bollinger lower band + trend line resonance), if it drops here, it will be a 'bottom fishing golden pit'!
Indicator signals: RSI 'playing dead', MACD 'holding back a big move'.
RSI (57.44) is 'lying flat' in the neutral zone, but the convergence of three lines indicates that the bullish and bearish energy is about to explode.
Although the MACD histogram has narrowed, the DIF is still greater than the DEA, and the medium to long-term trend remains bullish. Tonight's data may become a 'catalyst'!
If you don't know how to time the market, you can follow Shen Ce for real-time analysis of the latest market trends in the village, guiding you step by step!
Shen Ce's 'impulsive summary':
The non-farm payroll data at 10 PM tonight is the 'ultimate judgment' for both bulls and bears! If employment data is significantly revised down, the narrative of a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy will directly collapse, the Federal Reserve's rate cut path will be completely rewritten, and BTC, as a 'hedge against inflation + safe haven', may directly 'blast off' the shorts!
How much do you think tonight's data will be revised down? Do you have any positions? Let me know in the comments.
