When Bitcoin sneezes, altcoins may be brewing a post-cold celebration—but don't rush to pop the champagne; this party may not have sent out all the invitations yet.

The hottest topic in the crypto circle recently is whether the 'altcoin season' is coming. Watching the TOTAL3 index rise by 9% over the week, Bitcoin's market share drop to 57%, and Solana, BNB, and other 'second-tier big brothers' being pursued by institutions, many have begun to fantasize about the days of 'buying coins with closed eyes and doubling down.' But the reality is: it feels more like a 'preheating party' for altcoins; the main characters haven't arrived yet, but the atmosphere crew has already started to party.

My view: don't be led by 'local festivities', the 'entry tickets' for the altcoin season haven't been fully distributed yet.

  1. Funds are being 'picky', not 'sprinkling pepper'.
    What is rising sharply now is either AI, RWA, these sectors with real implementations (for example, some game tokens have risen 200% in 30 days), or established players like Solana, BNB backed by institutions. But look at the trading volume: an average of 3-5 billion USD per day, not even a fraction of last year's fourth quarter. What does this indicate?Funds are still 'testing the waters', hesitant to pour real money into small and mid-cap altcoins.It's like going to a nightclub, the DJ hasn't played the hype track yet, everyone is just sipping a drink at the table — to really dance, you have to wait for the music to blow up.

  2. Bitcoin's market share is the 'weather forecast', but the heavy rain hasn't arrived yet.
    Historical data shows that when BTC.D falls below 55%, altcoins will experience a 'full-scale rally'. It has indeed fallen from 65% to 57%, indicating a 'decline', but it's still a step away from the 'critical point'. More crucially, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy hangs like a 'sword above the head' — if inflation persists and interest rate hike expectations return, funds may quickly retreat from altcoins and rush back to Bitcoin for 'safety'.The current rise is more like a rebound during a 'negative vacuum period', not a signal of a 'trend reversal'..

  3. Altcoin Season Index: 44 points, far from the 'passing line'
    This index is like the 'final exam report card for altcoins': only over 75 points counts as 'entering the altcoin season'. It has just climbed from the bottom to 44 points, indicating thatmarket funds are still revolving around 'honor students' (large-cap assets), and it hasn't been the turn of 'failing students' (small and mid-cap coins) to rally.In other words: buying altcoins now is more like 'betting on individual top students', rather than 'the whole class advancing together'.

A 'party survival guide' for investors: don't be the 'atmosphere group', be a 'smart player'.

  • Don't chase 'internet celebrity coins', look for 'power players': The volatility of meme coins (like Dogecoin, SHIB) is like riding a roller coaster, up 50% today, down 70% tomorrow. Instead of gambling on 'luck', it's better to focus on projects with real applications (such as DeFi protocols, RWA tracks, tokens that combine AI + blockchain). The real 'tenfold coins' often emerge from 'corners that no one pays attention to'.

  • Diversify your investments, don't go 'all in' on one sector: AI tokens are performing well? Then allocate some to RWA; chain games are hot? Add some infrastructure (like storage, Layer2). Market style shifts faster than flipping a book, yesterday's 'hot items' may become 'hot potatoes' tomorrow.

  • Keep an eye on three 'key signals':
    ❶ Whether Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) falls below 55%;
    ❷ Whether the altcoin season index can rise to 75;
    ❸ Whether the Federal Reserve clearly signals 'interest rate cuts'.
    These three indicators are like the 'switch' for the altcoin season — don't rush to celebrate until they light up..

To put it bluntly: the current altcoin market is like a 'high-end cocktail party' — high barriers, deep tricks, newcomers are easily 'cut down', while veterans can 'drink soup'.

Want to position early, but don't know which coins to pick? Want to avoid 'bad assets' and seize 'potential stocks'?
Follow me for the next reveal (5 altcoin tracks most likely to explode in 2025) — teaching you step by step how to select coins using 'data + logic', rather than relying on 'luck + fantasy'!

(I am Sensory, your 'awakening agent' in the crypto market.)#山寨币市场回暖 $SOL