The cryptocurrency market experienced a 'rise then fall' scenario in February, causing significant losses for many investors. Those who entered the market early have actually become accustomed to it, while newcomers are somewhat at a loss. As an emerging market, it is quite normal to see such volatility in the absence of regulation; after all, human greed amplifies the fluctuations, resulting in a transfer of wealth.
From a monthly perspective, Bitcoin has formed an inverted hammer shooting star, which has a substantial impact on the trend. Therefore, the movement in March is likely to be a rise followed by a drop, requiring some caution and avoiding any complacency. The fluctuation range may be between 8200 and 10000 dollars, of course, this is based on the monthly chart, and a more precise judgment needs to be made in conjunction with the intraday movements.
From the weekly view, the drop over the week has erased nearly a month’s gains. This week’s sell-off exceeded most people's expectations, reminding everyone to strictly follow trading rules; even if it means earning less, avoid unnecessary losses. From the trend, it is stabilizing at the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Various indicators may be in a transition from strong to weak; it depends on whether it can stabilize and then initiate a rebound. The short-term oscillation range on the weekly chart should be around $8300—$9300.
This is a judgment made from a larger cycle. Sometimes, when we expand the cycle, we discover a different world. By judging direction through the large cycle, we find that we are currently in a short-term oversold state, and in the long run, the adjustment may continue; therefore, be prepared for a protracted battle.
However, everyone should still be full of confidence in the market, as such drops have been experienced many times, and after a bottoming process, they will rise again. Since you choose to invest in this market, you must learn to hold firm, embodying the spirit of 'not making money, not leaving the market.'
Bitcoin is still stabilizing near the MA180, acting as a boundary between bullish and bearish trends, being repeatedly tested. The support around $8500 is quite strong, and of course, everyone needs to be wary of a pullback to the strong support at $8200. The best outcome now is to stabilize and oscillate here, followed by a rebound. However, if it rebounds, the pressure at the upper range of $9000—$9300 will be very significant, which may lead to another drop forming a double bottom.
From the indicators, the KDJ's K fast line continues to decline, and the market is in a severe oversold range, waiting for the D line and J line to move down, observing when the three will converge to form a golden cross or form a U-shaped bottom for decision-making. The MACD is running below the 0 axis, indicating a weakening trend, currently in an adjustment period. The trading volume is also shrinking; the shrinking oscillation helps stabilize the market. The price continues to operate at the lower Bollinger Band, and the market trend is very weak.
Bitcoin's trend remains primarily in a range-bound oscillation. If you want to trade, it is still about selling high and buying low, placing orders between $8500—$8900; specifics can follow the strategy provided yesterday.
Today, BSV saw a significant rebound, encountering resistance at MA7 and experiencing a pullback, which is also a normal phenomenon, part of an oversold rebound. With the halving approaching, the rebound is part of the normal trend. From the indicators, the KDJ is also in an oversold state. The MACD is stabilizing below the 0 axis, beginning to rise slightly. The price stabilized at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, initiating a rebound. The specific situation still needs observation; the expectation for the 'halving market' remains, but a wave of sell-offs has caused many to lose confidence, yet it is still necessary to hold firm. The pressure above is at $235 and $255.
ETC has also seen a slight rebound. If we take $13 as the peak this time, it has stabilized at the 61.8% position, initiating a slight rebound, which is also a normal phenomenon. On the indicators, it is also in an oversold state, and the market has started to stabilize. The pressure above is at $8 and $9.5.
I believe today’s rebound gives everyone a lot of confidence. At this moment, confidence is more important than gold. However, as a bottom-fisher, it is still necessary to wait for the indicators to fully recover and engage in right-side trading, rather than left-side trading now. If you want to play short-term and are relatively skilled, you can use part of your position to make some swings, still focusing on low positions, avoiding chasing highs, and definitely controlling yourself.
