The market is always brewing storms in oscillation, and trends erupt in silence—every consolidation of ETH is a battlefield for smart money positioning!

Market Analysis:

Since the non-farm data was released on the evening of September 5th, ETH has been caught in a fierce tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the price oscillating within the narrow range of 4254 - 4337. During this period, it briefly touched a low of 4420, but then quickly rebounded, highlighting the stalemate between the forces of bulls and bears in the market. Currently, ETH is facing a resistance level at 350, with a key level at 4311, while 4220 has become an important support level below it.

Technical Aspects:

The current price is $4308. From the daily chart level, ETH currently shows a typical 'box fluctuation + key level suppression' pattern:

Resistance and Support Levels: The upper resistance level is $4350, the key level is $4311, and the lower support level is $4220. If it breaks below $4220, it may trigger a technical sell-off to $4015. If it breaks above $4350, it targets the 'ETF Catalyst Zone' of $4530-4800.

Volume-Price Relationship: The trading volume has continued to shrink to $11.8 billion/day over the past three days, down 40% from the August peak, but the funding rate remains positive, indicating that bulls still dominate. This 'shrinking sideways market' is often a precursor to a trend change, so beware of the risk of 'long-term consolidation must fall.'

Indicator Signals: MACD forms an 'air refueling' pattern above the zero axis, but RSI has fallen back to 52 from the overbought area, indicating weakening bullish momentum; the middle band of the Bollinger Bands has become a short-term dividing line for strength and weakness. A break below it may trigger stop-loss orders.

Dragon Brother's Viewpoint:

In the short term (1-3 days), Ethereum is likely to continue fluctuating in the $4200-4400 range. The weekend market is expected to continue slight fluctuations, most likely consuming time in a sideways manner and shaking out retail investors' chips.

Medium-term outlook (1-3 weeks): The market will gradually choose a direction. If ETH can hold the $4200 support and break through the $4380-4410 resistance band, it may re-attack $4700 or even challenge the $5000 mark.

However, if the key support at $4200 is lost, it may trigger a deeper correction to the $4000-3800 area. Some analysts believe that if a 'bear market trap' occurs, ETH may undergo a deep correction to $3350 in September.

Operational Strategy: Rules for retail investors in a volatile market

For retail investors, Dragon Brother provides the following operational strategies:

Contract traders can adopt a range trading strategy: Lightly test long positions near $4220-4250, defend at $4150, and target $4300; test short positions near $4330-4350, defend at $4380, and target $4250. Be sure to set stop-losses and control position risk.

Spot investors may consider gradually positioning in the area of previous low points. If it breaks below $4200, they can wait to continue building positions near $4050.

Risk management is key. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and it's best to control the risk of a single trade within 1-3% of total funds. Avoid heavy trading before important data releases and maintain flexibility to adapt to market changes.

Regardless of which direction the market breaks, remember Dragon Brother's words: 'Risk control is always more important than profit pursuit.' Only by staying in the market can opportunities be seized.

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