We are entering the final week before the September FOMC meeting. With CPI, ECB’s decision, and global inflation data, markets are bracing for major volatility. Here’s what traders need to watch.
U.S. CPI – Thursday, Sept 11
Forecast: MoM +0.3%, YoY +2.9%, Core +3.1%.
Why it matters: CPI will be the final puzzle piece before the Fed’s decision next week. Markets price 96% chance of a 25bps cut – but higher inflation could change everything.
ECB Meeting – Thursday
Expectations: Rates unchanged.
Why it matters: Lagarde’s tone will guide EUR. Hawkish = stronger EUR; dovish = weaker EUR.
Global Data – Asia
China CPI, Japan Tankan. Signals of slowdown or recovery in Asia may influence global risk sentiment.
Politics & Fed independence
Trump’s attempt to remove Lisa Cook and Miran’s nomination add pressure to the Fed. Markets may see gold as a safe haven.
This week will likely set the tone for September. For crypto traders, Thursday’s CPI is the key event – confirming whether the Fed stays on track for rate cuts.
