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Autumn Riley
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Knowing when you’re too late One of the hardest questions in trading is simple: Am I chasing too late? A chart that’s already doubled or tripled is tempting, but also dangerous. That’s where base analysis brings clarity. Stocks don’t rise in straight lines. They run, then pause to build what’s called a base. Each base tells you something about where in the cycle you are. Base 1 — institutions are quietly building positions. Risk is high but reward is huge. Base 2 — the trend is confirmed, smart traders still have room to enter. Base 3 — retail starts noticing, momentum headlines appear. Base 4 — the crowd has fully arrived. Expectations are stretched, risk outweighs reward. By the time you see a fourth base, the best part of the move is behind you. The stock may still grind higher, but the odds of exhaustion are growing fast. The key is to recognize that you’re not buying strength anymore - you’re buying what’s left after the real move has already happened. Respect the cycle. Don’t be the one who shows up to the party just as the DJ is packing up.
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