In March 2025, ETH plummeted 9.55%. Liangxi shorted with a capital of 10,000, earning 10 million in just a few hours. The whole network was in an uproar, with countless people shouting, 'Rolling positions are the fastest way for ordinary people to turn around!' - but no one told you that Liangxi had previously been liquidated 37 times, with total losses exceeding 5 million.

ETH intraday chart: Liangxi's rolling position points and the corpses of liquidated traders.

1. The essence of rolling positions: A 'life and death game' under high leverage.

1. Analysis of Liangxi's 'magical operations'

- Accurate judgment: Under ETH's wide fluctuations and downtrends, Liangxi profited from every wave of volatility through long and short trades.

- Adding to rolling positions: After each profit, add the profit to the next trade, using the effect of compound interest to amplify returns.

- Strict stop loss: Although using high leverage, set a narrow stop loss to avoid excessive loss on a single trade.

2. The 'mathematical trap' of rolling positions

- Winning rate requirements: Assuming a 60% win rate for each trade, the success probability of rolling positions 10 times in a row is only 0.6^10 = 0.6%.

- Drawdown risk: Even if the first 9 times are successful, the 10th failure may lead to zero (for example, a user in 2024 profited 1 million from 9 rolling positions, but lost everything on the 10th liquidation).

- Liquidity constraints: Large funds rolling positions can trigger reverse market fluctuations, leading to widened slippage (for example, a fund in 2023 caused ETH to flash crash due to rolling position operations).

2. Tony's 'Rolling Position Manual': Can ordinary people replicate it?

1. Tony's legend and truth

- The myth of turning 50,000 into 20 million: Tony achieved 400 times return through rolling positions within a year, but behind it was 16 hours of watching the market every day and hundreds of trial and error.

- The core logic of rolling positions:

Only roll positions in a significant trend (for example, when BTC rises unilaterally in 2024)

Gradually reduce positions after making a profit (to prevent profit withdrawal)

Never go all in (retain 50% of funds to cope with extreme market conditions)

2. The 'nightmare of rolling positions' for ordinary people

- Psychological collapse: After consecutive stop losses, it is easy to engage in emotional trading (for example, a user in 2023 went all in on the fourth time after three consecutive stop losses, leading to liquidation).

- Technical threshold: Rolling positions require a strong ability to predict the market, and ordinary people often 'see the right direction but lose at the point'.

- Time cost: Full-time traders find it difficult to manage rolling positions, let alone amateur players.

3. The 'alternative solutions' for rolling positions: Low-risk, high-return paths.

1. Dollar-cost averaging + grid strategy

- Dollar-cost averaging: Invest a fixed amount in BTC/ETH every month and hold for the long term (2021-2025 BTC dollar-cost averaging annualized return exceeded 30%).

- Grid: Buy low and sell high within a volatile range to earn profit from fluctuations (for example, in 2024, ETH generated an annualized return of 50% in the 2000-2500 USD range).

2. Trend tracking + light position trial and error

- Trend tracking: Only enter the market when the major trend is clear (for example, chasing the rise after BTC breaks historical highs).

- Light position trial and error: Use 1%-2% of the position to test strategies and gradually increase the position after verifying effectiveness.

3. Learn on-chain data

- Whale monitoring: Use tools like Glassnode to track institutional movements (for example, after a whale increased its ETH holdings in 2024, the price rose 20% within a week).

- Emotional indicators: Use the fear and greed index to identify extreme market emotions (for example, buy when the index is <20 and sell when it's >80).

(Rolling position alternative solutions)

Includes:

Dollar-cost averaging + grid practical template

Detailed explanation of trend tracking strategies

On-chain data monitoring tools


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