US Data

Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): 0.3% (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%) → in line

• Non-Farm Employment Change: 22K (forecast 75K, previous 79K) → much weaker than expected

• Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (forecast 4.3%, previous 4.2%) → slightly higher

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🔎 Quick Analysis for Crypto (BTC & ETH focus)

1. Weaker Jobs Growth (22K vs. 75K forecast):

• This is a major miss. It signals a slowing US labor market → raises expectations that the Fed could cut rates sooner.

• Lower rates = weaker USD = bullish for BTC & ETH.

2. Unemployment Rising (4.3% from 4.2%):

• Confirms labor weakness. Risk assets (stocks, crypto) typically rally on Fed easing bets.

3. Wages Steady (0.3% m/m):

• Inflation pressure is not spiking. This gives the Fed more room to pivot dovish.

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🚀 Crypto Impact Outlook

• BTC/ETH short-term: Expect increased volatility. First reaction may be choppy, but weaker NFP + higher unemployment leans bullish for crypto.

• Macro narrative: Market may start pricing in earlier Fed cuts → risk-on sentiment → BTC could test higher resistance levels.

• Caution: If risk sentiment flips to “recession fears,” equities might drag crypto down short-term, but overall setup remains positive for BTC medium-term.

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