Bull run ends in 50 days.

Cycle Peak Countdown says BTC is 95% done (1,017 days in) as we bleed in typical Q3 shakeout.

Use this alpha playbook and retire rich.

Cycle length:

1,017 days since the Nov 2022 low.

Prior bulls peak at 1,060–1,100 days.

That places the target in late Oct–mid Nov 2025.

About 50 days ahead.

More proof follows.

Halving → peak:

April 2024 was 503 days ago.

History says peaks arrive 518–580 days post-halving.

We’re 77–86% through that window.

Basically, entering the hot zone.

Hot means careful!

Bear in the making:

After top, BTC always drops 70-80% over 370–410 days.

That risk maps to roughly Q1–Q2 2026.

Historical probability for 2026 bear is 100% (!)

But first - blowoff.

Seasonality:

September is the weakest month (avg −6.17%).

Q3 stats are mixed—median +0.80% and positive total points, but average −2.10% due to a few large losers.

Typical pattern: Sept poor → Oct/Nov strength.

Key date: Sept 17th.

Weekly chart (cycle pulse):

$BTC now at $109.8K pullback.

ATH $124.1K (Aug 14).

Supports: 50w SMA $95.9K, 200w SMA $52.3K.

7-week SPX correlation −0.25 (decoupling).

Very low correlation marks key reversals.

Daily Chart Technicals:

200d BPRO $111.0K;

200d SMA $101.5K;

RSI 43;

ATR 3,000;

50d vol 2,940.

Local support $107.7–$108.7K;

Local resistance $113.0–$114.1K.

Here's more👇

Directions - what next:

CTF/HTF Trailers both in bear mode.

ATR-based breaking points: $112,758 / $114,292.

Neutral/bearish below those; local structure safe above $107–108K.

Below, bears can get aggressive.

Secondary corrections dip 20-30%.

Luckily, miners hanging on.

On-chain & mining:

Mining cost $95.4K (cost/price ≈0.86);

Miners healthy, capitulation risk negligible.

NUPL 0.527;

MVRV 2.20; >90% supply in profit.

But there's more to this game.

Let's talk big guys:

ETFs 24h spot volume $630.94M;

Net flow +$332.8M on Sept 3 (first strong inflow after August outflows).

AUM marks up $155.8B:

⇉ BlackRock $81.44B,

⇉ Fidelity $35.28B,

⇉ GBTC $19.8B.

Spot is 93.54% mkt share.

Now, what does it all mean?⤵️

Put simply:

We’re 96% complete.

50 days to the historic peak window.

Key supports held, on-chain resilient, ETFs minor shopping (AUM down $13 billion from peak).

September mission: don't die.

Oct–Nov: peak -> altseason.

Mark in calendar: Oct 22

Hungry for more?

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Thanks for all the love in comments🧡