Ethereum Faces $4.5K Test as Traders Split on Breakout Validity

Spot demand drives ETH rally, but futures activity stays muted—daily close key to confirmation

Ethereum (ETH) climbed 3.5% to $4,360, moving closer to the $4,500 resistance after sweeping liquidity near $4,200. The move coincided with a bullish RSI divergence and a breakout from a two-week falling wedge pattern. Analysts stress, however, that a daily close above $4,500 remains the decisive signal for sustained upside momentum.

Market commentator Jelle suggested that “price discovery awaits,” while trader Popeye cautioned that ETH is still locked in a range, noting that acceptance above key volume nodes is needed for confirmation.

Data shows divergence between spot and futures flows. Futures open interest barely moved, while spot trading volumes surged, with funding rates holding near neutral. This indicates the rally was driven by organic spot demand rather than leveraged positions. Without futures support, durability of the breakout is questioned.

On Binance, altcoin spot trading exceeded $16 billion on Monday, but ETH’s net taker volume stayed negative, reflecting persistent sell-side pressure and signaling that speculative flows are favoring other tokens.

The $4,500 threshold remains the critical level. A confirmed daily close above it could push ETH toward $4,800–$5,000, while failure risks reinforcing range-bound conditions with potential downside toward $4,100.

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