Wang Pang combines the latest SOL market conditions, analyzing from the technical perspective, capital movements, and macro factors for your reference:

1. Key technical levels and signals

SOL is currently testing the key support of 194 dollars (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level, recent 'last line of defense'). The hourly chart fluctuates around 199.9 dollars, but the resistance at 208.8 dollars (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level) is strong, with multiple unsuccessful rebounds. The MACD shows a hidden top divergence and the histogram is shortening, indicating weakening bullish strength; the KDJ is overbought (reaching 95), and a short-term pullback may occur.

2. On-chain activity and whale selling pressure

On-chain data shows that large funds are reducing their holdings of SOL:

• In the past 24 hours, a mysterious address transferred 180,000 SOL (approximately 36 million dollars) to exchanges.

• Galaxy Digital has deposited 500,000 SOL (approximately 103 million dollars) to Coinbase in the past five days, possibly for unloading.

• A Rollbit-related address recently sold 50,000 SOL at an average price of 203.4 dollars (10.17 million dollars).

These actions increase selling pressure, and whale activities usually have a significant impact on prices.

3. Capital flow and market sentiment

• Spot capital net outflow: In the past 24 hours, SOL experienced a net outflow of 141 million dollars, far exceeding BTC and ETH, indicating insufficient investor confidence.

• Trading volume shrinks: Trading volume has decreased in the last 4 hours, with price and volume both declining, resulting in a quiet market and weak upward momentum.

Wang Pang suggests: Lightly short near 207.18—206.68, targeting 205.68—204.68. Finally, a reminder: the market changes rapidly, so be sure to defend your position; preserving your capital is the most important. #solana