The crypto sphere has just welcomed a 'super data week'! On one hand, Federal Reserve officials collectively release signals for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September soaring from 85% to 89%; USD liquidity is about to loosen; on the other hand, the U.S. Department of Commerce announces 'GDP data via blockchain,' CFTC upgrades crypto regulation, and giants like Dell and Goldman Sachs are aggressively increasing their SOL and ETH holdings - Amidst mixed bullish and bearish news, although BTC and ETH saw short-term corrections on Friday, the long-term liquidity dividend is already on the way! This article breaks down all the key information to help you seize crypto opportunities during the interest rate cut cycle!
One, the Federal Reserve's 'rate cut wave' has been determined! The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September has soared to 89%, ushering 'liquidity into the crypto market.'
U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve officials' statements directly set the tone for the September rate cut, which is a 'long-term positive' for the crypto market:
1. Inflation data 'meets the mark,' removing obstacles to rate cuts.
The July core PCE price index recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.9% (higher than the previous value of 2.8%, marking the highest since February 2025); it seems there are signs of rising inflation, but the key is that it 'meets expectations' - the market has already digested this data, and personal spending increased by 0.5% month-on-month (the highest since March), indicating that the economy still has resilience, neither experiencing 'out-of-control inflation' nor falling into 'recession risk,' leaving room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
In summary: 'If inflation does not exceed expectations + the economy is vibrant,' the 'concerns' about the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September have vanished, with the probability soaring from 85% to 89%, almost 'set in stone'!
2. Federal Reserve bigwigs collectively 'hint,' the path to rate cuts is clear.
Federal Reserve 'number three' Williams: Clearly states that current interest rates are 'in a moderately restrictive state,' implying 'it is possible to cut rates while still maintaining restrictiveness in the future,' effectively providing the market with a 'sense of security';
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Directly states 'support for a 25 basis point cut in September, and there may be further cuts in the next 3-6 months'; this is the first time a Federal Reserve official has provided a 'subsequent rate cut timeline,' indicating that rate cuts are not a 'one-time operation,' but rather the 'beginning of a cycle.'
Key background: Over the past three months, the average monthly increase in U.S. employment has only been 35,000, far below the 123,000 of the same period in 2024; the labor market is softening, providing 'economic justification' for rate cuts.
3. The 'fatal attraction' of the crypto market: Loose liquidity = asset price increase
Rate cuts mean 'the dollar becomes cheaper,' idle funds in the market will flow into 'high-yield risky assets,' and cryptocurrencies are one of them:
Historical trends validate: After the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2020, BTC rose from $10,000 to $69,000; after the 2024 rate cut cycle begins, BTC rose from $30,000 to $110,000, with each rate cut accompanied by a 'liquidity-driven surge' in the crypto market;
This time has greater potential: The Federal Reserve plans to lower the current rate of 4.25-4.5% to below 3.0%, and the rate cut cycle may last 1-2 years, with long-term liquidity dividends continuously injected into the crypto market, raising the 'valuation ceiling' of mainstream coins like BTC and ETH!
Two, the U.S. continues to make 'blockchain + crypto' moves! The Department of Commerce and CFTC are both making efforts, and the track has gained 'official endorsement.'
In addition to the Federal Reserve, the U.S. has also been making frequent 'big moves' in blockchain and crypto regulation, injecting 'confidence in compliance' into the industry:
1. U.S. Department of Commerce 'GDP data via blockchain': This is the first large-scale use of blockchain by the government, of great significance.
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that starting in July 2025, it will publish actual GDP data on the blockchain, with two core purposes:
Showcasing blockchain value: Using national-level data to validate blockchain's advantages of 'tamper-proof and high transparency,' breaking the stereotype that 'blockchain is only used for cryptocurrencies,' paving the way for more government scenarios to take shape in the future;
Continuing the 'Blockchain Center' strategy: This is a continuation of Trump's 'building a Blockchain Center in the U.S.' initiative, and more blockchain support policies (such as subsidies and tax incentives) may be launched in the future, benefiting the crypto industry indirectly.
For the crypto market, this is 'official endorsement' - even national GDP data uses blockchain, indicating that blockchain technology has been recognized by the mainstream; (BTC,) ETH, as core assets of the blockchain ecosystem, will see their long-term value further solidified.
2. CFTC upgrades crypto regulation: on one hand 'standardizing' while on the other hand 'expanding,' making institutions feel more secure entering the market.
CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) has been actively moving recently, seemingly strengthening regulation but actually clearing barriers for 'institutional funds to enter':
Release FBO framework guidance: Clarify compliance standards for foreign platforms providing digital asset services to U.S. users, avoiding 'regulatory ambiguity that deters institutions from entering the market,' making it smoother for international platforms like Coinbase and Binance to connect with U.S. institutions in the future;
Adopting Nasdaq's monitoring system: Using mature monitoring technology from traditional finance to regulate the crypto market, cracking down on fraud and manipulation - this is a 'sense of security' for institutions; the reason giants like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan dare to increase their holdings in crypto assets is precisely because regulation is becoming increasingly standardized and risks are controllable;
The role of regulation may expand: If Congress passes related legislation, the CFTC will gain more crypto regulatory authority, replacing some functions of the SEC, reducing 'regulatory confusion for bulls,' and lowering compliance costs for the industry.
Three, institutions are 'crazy buying'! Dell increases its holdings of 4.07 million SOL, Goldman Sachs heavily invests in ETH; don't ignore these signals.
Under the dual stimulus of Federal Reserve rate cuts and compliance policies, institutions have begun to 'secretly increase their positions,' with BTC, ETH, and SOL becoming core targets:
1. SOL becomes 'the new darling of institutions': Dell aggressively buys 4.07 million units, holding 83.17 million units.
Dell Peripheral Corporation, a subsidiary of Dell, recently increased its holdings by approximately 4.07 million SOL, surpassing a total holding of 83.17 million SOL (based on the current SOL price of $180, the holding value exceeds $15 billion) - This is the first large-scale purchase of SOL by a traditional tech giant, and the logic behind it is clear:
SOL's high TPS (2000 transactions per second) and low gas fees (a few cents per transaction) make it suitable for building enterprise-level blockchain applications (such as supply chain management, data storage); Dell may plan to use SOL for its own business;
Institutions are optimistic about SOL's ecological potential: 3,000 new DApps are expected on the SOL chain in 2024, with daily active users exceeding 3 million, the ecological growth rate far surpassing other public chains; Dell's increased holdings are 'voting with real money.'
For ordinary investors, Dell's actions are a 'strong signal' - SOL has transformed from a 'shanzhai coin' to an 'institutional allocation target,' opening up long-term growth potential.
2. ETH sees large institutional buying: Goldman Sachs holds $721 million, and the treasury department continues to buy up;
Goldman Sachs leads institutional holdings: Goldman Sachs holds $721 million worth of ETH spot ETFs, making it the largest ETH ETF holding institution globally, far exceeding Jane Street ($190 million) and Millennium ($186 million) - As a traditional financial giant, Goldman Sachs increasing its ETH holdings indicates its recognition of ETH's dual attributes of 'value storage + ecological application';
ETH treasury department 'stockpiles coins': Since early June, the ETH treasury department has increased its holdings of circulating ETH by 2.6%, Standard Chartered predicts it 'will eventually hold 10% of circulating ETH,' and gives a target price of $7500 for ETH by the end of the year - Continuous buying by the treasury department will reduce ETH's circulating supply, creating a 'supply-demand imbalance.'
Although ETH fell 4.2% on Friday due to the market correction, the actions of institutions laying out long-term positions suggest that the current price may be a 'low opportunity'.
3. BTC 'is undervalued': JPMorgan cries foul, institutions increase their holdings during downturns.
JPMorgan: BTC is $16,000 cheaper than gold: JPMorgan's research report points out that BTC's volatility has dropped from 60% to 30% (historically low), approaching gold's volatility; according to model calculations, BTC is undervalued by about $16,000 relative to gold, and the current price of $110,000 has 'room for correction';
Public companies are buying on dips: The UK-listed company The Smarter Web Company increased its holdings by 45 BTC, totaling 240 BTC; U.S. stock company Bitmine holds 792,500 ETH, 192 BTC, and $775 million in cash - institutions are increasing their holdings during BTC corrections, not reducing them, indicating long-term optimism.
Four, short-term risks and long-term opportunities: Key events in September will determine the direction; this approach is the most prudent.
The current market is in a phase of 'short-term volatility + long-term benefits,' where caution against correction risks must be balanced with seizing the benefits of rate cuts; these three operational suggestions should be remembered:
1. Keep a close eye on key events in September: non-farm employment, CPI, Federal Reserve meeting.
September is the 'watershed for the market'; these three events will determine short-term trends:
September 6 non-farm employment data: If employment numbers fall below expectations, it will further strengthen expectations for rate cuts, and BTC and ETH may rebound; if they exceed expectations, it may trigger concerns about 'delayed rate cuts,' leading to short-term corrections;
September 11 CPI data: If inflation exceeds expectations, it may affect the pace of interest rate cuts; if it meets expectations, the market will preemptively digest the benefits of rate cuts;
September 18 Federal Reserve meeting: This is the 'ultimate event'; if a 25 basis point cut occurs as scheduled, the crypto market is likely to start rising; if there is an unexpected pause in interest rate cuts, be cautious of short-term corrections.
It is advisable to take small positions and try out in the short term, and increase positions after the meeting takes place to avoid 'black swan' risks.
2. Long-term layout of 'three main lines': beneficiaries of rate cuts + heavy institutional holdings + compliant tracks.
Main line of beneficiaries from rate cuts: BTC (anti-inflation + institutional preference), ETH (ecological + treasury increasing holdings), suitable for long-term holding, can build positions in batches during corrections;
Main line of institutional heavy holdings: SOL (Dell's increased holdings + high ecological growth), suitable for investors with high risk tolerance; small position allocation is recommended, with long-term growth potential.
Main line of compliant tracks: U.S. spot ETF-related targets (e.g., GBTC, IBIT corresponding to BTC, ETH), as CFTC regulatory standards are in place, institutional funds will continue to flow in, with higher safety.
3. Risk warning: Don't panic about short-term volatility; the long-term logic remains unchanged.
On Friday, BTC fell 3.9%, and ETH fell 4.2%, primarily due to 'short-term panic triggered by inflation data exceeding expectations,' but the larger logic of rate cuts remains unchanged - during the cycle of the Federal Reserve reducing rates from 4.25-4.5% to below 3.0%, the loosening of USD liquidity will continue to support crypto assets, and short-term corrections are 'buying opportunities,' not 'signals of collapse.'
But also note: In the past ten years, September has seen declines in four years, with an average drop of 2.5%; the short-term market may continue to consolidate for 2-3 weeks (Matrixport outlook), don't chase highs or panic sell, patiently wait for catalytic factors (like the rate cut landing, institutional buying).
Lastly, let me be frank:
The current market is 'the volatility before dawn'; the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle has begun, institutions are continuously increasing their holdings, and blockchain has received official recognition - these three long-term positives are in place, and short-term corrections are just an 'opportunity window.' For ordinary investors, don't let short-term K-line fluctuations disrupt your rhythm; grasp the core main line of 'rate cuts + compliance + institutional heavy holdings' to make money in the 2025 crypto bull market.
Do you think BTC can soar to $120,000 after the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September? Let's discuss in the comments and keep a close watch on this wave of liquidity dividends! # Federal Reserve rate cuts #BTC #ETH #SOL #Institutional buying #ETH质押退出动态观察
