As a novice, if you have just entered the cryptocurrency circle and your initial capital is only a few thousand yuan, less than 1,000U, try this (panic rolling) method.
I turned 3,000 yuan into 2 million yuan without relying on insider information. I only relied on a set of "panic rolling" methods.
Let me be honest first: I have also experienced margin calls 6 times. I lost more than 8 million in three nights, and all my capital was reduced to zero, leaving only the battery of my mobile phone.
After much reflection, I've discovered that 90% of exorbitant profits are hidden in two extreme emotions: extreme panic and extreme greed. Below, I'll break down five actions that can save your life and make money.
1. Position: Divide 3000 into 3 parts, 1000 each.
Don’t think about doubling your money first, think about how to avoid death first.
2. Leverage: 10~20 times is the sweet spot. Any higher is just volunteering for the exchange.
3. Stop profit: When the profit reaches 100%, the principal will be withdrawn first, and the remaining profit will be considered as a "no-cost bullet".
4. Stop loss: Cut losses immediately when you lose 30% of your principal. If you are slow to do so, it will be useless even if you slap your thighs until they are swollen.
5. Reinvestment: If you earn 12,000 yuan for the first time, only take 6,000 yuan to continue rolling, and lock the rest into a cold wallet.
When should you pull the trigger? Remember that three signals light up at the same time:
① BTC's intraday decline is ≥15%, and the on-chain liquidation volume hits a 7-day high;
② The funding rate was negative for 12 consecutive hours, causing short positions to be squeezed out;
③ 4h RSI <30, but don’t rush to buy the bottom, wait for a stop-loss bullish candlestick to confirm.
On October 11, 2023, ETH hit a low of 1520. All three signals were on, and I entered the market:
First position: 2000U, 20 times more than the original price, stop loss: 1480.
· If it rebounds 1600, you can withdraw the principal and make a profit of 2000U. Keep rolling.
I added 2000U to my position for the second time, and when it reached 1780, my profit became 8000U.
After confirming the trend for the third time, I put all my 8,000 U tokens in and pushed ETH up to 2,100, bringing my account’s net worth to just over 100,000 U tokens.
The key lies in the last step: determining whether the trend has really started.
I use a combination of "volume-price divergence + funding rate reversal"—when the price breaks below its previous low, but the OBV doesn't, and the funding rate flips from negative to positive in a split second, it's a sign of short sellers surrendering. This combination has a 65% win rate and a 5:1 profit-loss ratio, which lasts me a year.
Don't mythify luck, it's all about rhythm + strategy + execution.
There are always opportunities in the market, but most people only chase rising prices and sell when prices fall. First learn to survive, then learn to roll over.
The dumbest way to make money in the cryptocurrency world is actually the most profitable! I personally tested it and made 20WU from 1WU, all thanks to these 3 "life-saving" operations!
Many people, upon entering the cryptocurrency world, begin to immerse themselves in technical skills, memorizing K-line charts, playing with high-frequency trading, and performing analysis, acting like Wall Street finance PhDs. The result? Blow-ups! Blow-ups! Blow-ups again!
My method, to be frank, is stupid as hell, but I rely on it—
From 1WU to 20WU in less than 60 days!
The most profitable stupid method has only 3 steps:
Step 1: Strictly control your position - never exceed 5% of your principal in one order
Let me emphasize again: One order should not exceed 5% of the principal!
Just remember one thing: you don’t lose in direction, but die in full position!
Let me give you the simplest example
I started with 1WU as the principal, and only used 500U to open each order. If the direction was wrong, I would cancel the order and admit my mistake. The loss was only 2-3%, which I could handle.
If the direction is right, I will roll over the position and place the next order, let the profit roll over the profit, and maintain the profit and loss ratio of 2:1.
Step 2: Fix the strategy, repeat it, and don’t waver!
What is strategy? To be simple and crude, I only trade in two market conditions.
I will short when the price drops sharply at high level
I will buy more when the volume shrinks and increases at the bottom
Never buy at the bottom! Never go against the trend! Identify + execute + control your position = profit!
It's like moving bricks on a construction site. You don't need to be smart, you just need to repeat the correct actions - if you do it over a long period of time, you will make a lot of money.
Step 3: Close the position immediately when making a profit of 10%-20% every time, and never fight to the end!
What are you most afraid of? Don’t run away when you make a small profit, and don’t cut your losses when you suffer a big
My stupid method is "mechanical profit taking"
Once you earn 1000U, you can collect it! Even if the market is good, don't be greedy. The real profit is in your pocket.
result?
I started with a capital of 1WU, and rolled it out one order at a time, step by step, and finally rolled it up to 20WU!
Many people are still looking for the "precise bottom" of the magic order critical hit point, but their funds are getting less and less, and they are getting more and more anxious.
And me? Following the dumbest idea, I made more and more money easily. I've already doubled the money I made from my fans!
Someone asked me: Your logic is too simple, can you really make so much money?
I only have one reply: You think you lost to the market, but in fact you lost to your own uncontrollable hands.
But the same thing goes, you must first have execution. As the saying goes, if a prodigal son does not return, even gods cannot save him.
To make $1 million in the cryptocurrency world, you either have to rely on a bull market and hold on, or you have to bet on a lucky coin, or you have to use high leverage to bet on the right direction. But most people lose money, so don’t just rely on the get-rich-quick stories; first determine how much risk you can tolerate.
If you are also a fan of cryptocurrency technology, click on the coin homepage.
Click on the avatar to follow me and get first-hand information and in-depth analysis!
5-Minute Guide | SMA vs. EMA: Which Moving Average Is Best for Your Crypto Trading Strategy?
Neither the SMA (Simple Moving Average) nor the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) can be said to be "better" because they serve different trading purposes.
SMA excels at long-term trend analysis and stability, reducing false signals by giving equal weight to all periods; EMA reacts faster to price changes and is more suitable for short-term trading and volatile markets.
Choosing which moving average to use depends on your trading style, timeframe, and market conditions. Understanding the advantages of each will help you choose the tool that best suits your trading needs.
Brief Overview:
◔ There’s no single “winner” for any moving average – SMAs are better for long-term trend analysis, EMAs are better for short-term trading.
In less volatile markets, SMA provides more reliable signals by averaging all periodic data.
EMAs react quickly to price changes and therefore perform better in short-term trading with high volatility.
◔ The SMA is better at identifying ongoing trends and support/resistance levels, while the EMA is better at capturing short-term market reversals.
Which is "better" depends on trading style - long-term investors prefer the stability of the SMA, while day traders prefer the sensitivity of the EMA.
Overview – Simple Moving Average vs Exponential Moving Average
The key difference between SMA and EMA lies in their calculation method, which determines how quickly they react to price movements.
The SMA (Simple Moving Average) is a standardized average of prices over a selected period. Each price point is weighted equally, providing a relatively accurate reflection of the average price over the selected backtest period. However, the SMA is slow to react to price changes, especially sudden price fluctuations. In trending markets, the SMA tends to be further away from the price bars than the EMA.
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) incorporates a weighting of recent prices into its calculations, allowing it to react more quickly to price fluctuations. Consequently, the EMA line follows the price candlestick chart closely. However, be aware that a faster response also increases the likelihood of false signals.
Performance in volatile markets
The left side of the chart is an area worth noting. Moving averages are calculated based on closing prices, so when the market is in a volatile state and the distance between closing prices is small, prices will fluctuate around the moving average. For breakout traders, a quick check of the moving average can provide a preliminary indication of which stocks are in a consolidation phase.
The pointer position on the right side of the chart shows a price gap down. Here, it's clear that the EMA reacted faster than the SMA. While the SMA remains upward, the EMA has turned downward. This is because the EMA places more weight on recent data.
When prices are moving steadily, the difference between an SMA and an EMA using the same period will be minimal.
Will longer cycles have an impact?
The previous example used a more common parameter setting (a period of 20). If we expand this to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which are commonly used in trend following, are there any differences between the two?
Practical testing shows that no matter how you use moving averages in your trading, using one generally doesn't change the core of your strategy. The green arrow shows that the EMA reacts faster to large fluctuations, but it doesn't provide any additional valuable information to the strategy.
Trading application method
Traders use moving averages in different ways within their strategies. Personally, I consider price action more important than moving averages. I use moving averages only to build a market structure framework and don't base my trading decisions solely on them.
So, how do we decide whether to use SMA or EMA? We can use the price crossing the moving average as a way to determine the trend, and the price callback to the moving average as an entry opportunity for analysis.
If we consider a price crossing a moving average as a trend change signal, then the trading bias will be minimal regardless of the moving average used. In fact, the double top formation and subsequent breakdown in the middle of the chart preceded any signal provided by any moving average.
When the price pulls back to near the moving average, the black circle in the figure is the only position that has not touched the moving average. For most traders, "close" is enough, especially when the price breaks down after fluctuating within the range, which can be regarded as a valid shorting opportunity.
Which moving average should I use?
The difference between SMA and EMA is very small and should not have a substantial impact on a mature trading system. As for the optimal parameter settings, there is no "single correct answer".
Short-term traders often prefer indicators with faster reaction times, so they may choose the 10-day EMA or SMA for short-term trading. Some traders will observe whether the price moves along the 10-day SMA to look for breakout signals after short-term fluctuations.
Long-term traders prefer indicators that react more slowly to price action and often use the 50-day or 200-day SMA to identify the overall trend. As shown in the 200-period EMA comparison, while it reacts more quickly, the difference isn't significant.
In addition, you can also combine moving averages of different periods: for example, use the 100-day SMA to determine the long-term trend, and then use the 10-day EMA to identify trading opportunities during counter-trend pullbacks.
Using Bitcoin’s latest chart, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) shows a downtrend as the current price is trading below it.
If the price briefly rises above the faster 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) and then closes below it, traders could consider shorting the market. However, this isn't a trading strategy that can be applied directly in real-time and requires thorough testing.
You need to clarify: How far below the EMA does the price have to be to trigger an entry? Is just one close below the EMA enough, or does the entire candlestick need to be below it?
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Can moving averages predict market crashes with consistent accuracy?
Moving averages cannot consistently and accurately predict market crashes. They can identify trend reversals and signal potential market weakness, but they are inherently lagging indicators; they follow prices rather than providing advance warning. Relying solely on moving averages for market timing is often unreliable. Market crashes often occur suddenly, driven by complex economic and psychological factors that cannot be captured by technical indicators alone.
2. How do institutional traders typically use SMAs and EMAs in conjunction?
Institutional traders often use both SMAs and EMAs to confirm market trends and identify more robust entry signals. They typically monitor a longer-term SMA (such as the 200-day) to understand overall market direction, while using a shorter-term EMA (such as the 20-day) to identify trading opportunities. This combination helps them reduce false signals and enhance the effectiveness of their trading decisions: the slower SMA provides trend context, while the faster EMA captures the latest price action.
3. Do moving averages behave differently in the cryptocurrency market than in traditional markets?
Moving averages do behave differently in the crypto market due to its higher volatility and more volatile market sentiment. Traditional markets, by contrast, are generally more stable, making moving averages more reliable indicators. However, in the crypto market, shorter moving averages are preferred because they adapt more quickly to price fluctuations. Therefore, cryptocurrency traders often need to adjust their moving average periods and combine them with other indicators to accommodate the unique characteristics of the crypto market.
4. Which moving average periods work best in a high-inflation economic environment?
During periods of high inflation, shorter-term moving averages, such as 10-20 days, often outperform because they more quickly reflect price changes. Longer periods, such as 50-day or 200-day moving averages, can miss shifts in market sentiment triggered by inflation news. The most effective strategies often combine multiple periods: using shorter-term moving averages as entry and exit signals and longer-term moving averages to filter for broader trends, creating a more comprehensive strategy.
5. How do moving averages perform when a black swan event occurs?
During black swan events, extreme market volatility makes it difficult for moving averages to keep pace. Their lag can render them ineffective during volatile price fluctuations, leading to delayed or erroneous signals. During such events, investor sentiment fluctuates dramatically, potentially distorting both short-term and long-term moving averages. Traders should therefore rely more heavily on other technical indicators and rigorous risk management practices.
in conclusion
The debate over SMA (Simple Moving Average) versus EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ultimately comes down to individual trading needs. EMAs react more quickly to price changes, while SMAs provide more consistent signals. Neither is inherently superior or inferior—trading success comes down to applying the right tool to your trading style, timeframe, and market environment. Traders should test both beforehand to determine the method that best suits their strategy.
The "life and death crisis" of cryptocurrency contracts: the position-by-position technology crushes the full position, and the leverage manipulation technique is exposed!
In the high-tech gaming field of cryptocurrency contracts, there is a technical principle that is the most basic but also the most easily overlooked. It was only after countless cycles of margin calls and recoveries that I fully understood: the full-position mode is a "black hole" of technical trading that will swallow up all risk control strategies; the position-by-position mode is the magic weapon for technical traders to advance steadily and step by step!
Why is this so certain? From the underlying logic of technical risk control, the isolated position model empowers traders to fine-tune and dynamically control margin requirements and liquidation prices, essentially adding an intelligent risk control engine to the trading system. With the same 10x leverage, isolated position modeling makes the liquidation price calculation model more transparent and quantifiable. Traders can strategically adjust their positions in batches based on key price levels derived from technical analysis, avoiding a complete market crash caused by a single misjudgment, which is crucial in technical trading.
The following is an in-depth analysis from a technical perspective based on my own practical experience:
Assuming the current price of a certain coin is 100U, we use technical analysis tools, combined with historical volatility and market sentiment, to quantitatively evaluate the risk-return ratio under different leverage ratios:
10x leverage: From a technical risk management perspective, the forced liquidation price fluctuates within a range of 100U, plus or minus 10U. This means that within this price fluctuation range, any sudden technical pullback or unusual movement of major capital could trigger a margin call. Without the flexible adjustment mechanism of the isolated position model, once the price reaches the liquidation price, the funds will be instantly reduced to zero.
20x leverage: With a significant increase in leverage, technical risk increases exponentially. The liquidation price narrows significantly to a range of 5 units, placing extremely high demands on traders' technical analysis skills. Any slight deviation in technical indicators or market noise can lead to a liquidation. In practice, this high leverage is often associated with short-term, high-frequency trading strategies. However, without the protection of a fixed-margin trading model, frequent trading and a very narrow liquidation range will expose funds to extremely high risks.
2x leverage: In contrast, the forced liquidation price with 2x leverage is within a wide range of 50°. From a technical trading perspective, this provides traders with ample room for technical adjustments. Even if the market experiences short-term significant fluctuations, traders have ample time to flexibly adjust their positions and margin based on changes in technical indicators to avoid forced liquidation.
In fact, spot trading is essentially a contract trading with 1x leverage. When the price drops to zero, the loss is 100U, which is similar to the effect of a 1x leverage liquidation in contract trading in terms of technical risk.
The choice of leverage ratio isn't set in stone; it requires flexible adjustment based on technical analysis and market dynamics. In intraday trading, due to the shorter timeframes and concentrated market fluctuations, we can refer to the recent high and low price spreads and utilize technical tools like volatility indicators to calculate the appropriate leverage ratio. If market fluctuations can reach thousands of points, setting an appropriate leverage ratio through precise technical analysis can keep the liquidation price at a safe distance from the current price, providing ample technical buffer for trading.
For medium- to long-term trading, the longer timeframes and increased market uncertainty make market fluctuations more complex and unpredictable. From a technical risk management perspective, leverage should be reduced to allow for more technical adjustments and a capital buffer to mitigate potential technical reversals and unexpected market events.
The technical characteristics and market performance of different cryptocurrencies vary significantly, so the choice of leverage should be tailored to each individual and specific coin. For example, the 24-hour volatility of popular cryptocurrencies can reach as high as 30%. If one stubbornly uses 20x leverage at this level, a margin call is almost inevitable from a technical risk assessment perspective. Many novice traders often overlook this fact, blindly pursuing the high returns offered by high leverage while ignoring the significant technical risks inherent in it. Ultimately, they lose everything, a lesson I learned the hard way.
Cryptocurrency trading is about doing simple things repeatedly, sticking to a method for a long time, and mastering it. Cryptocurrency trading can also be like other industries and become proficient through practice. You can make every decision quickly and without hesitation.
To make $1 million in the cryptocurrency world, you either have to rely on a bull market and hold on, or you have to bet on a lucky coin, or you have to use high leverage to bet on the right direction. But most people lose money, so don’t just rely on the get-rich-quick stories; first determine how much risk you can tolerate.
If you are also a fan of cryptocurrency technology, click on the coin homepage.
Click on the avatar to follow me and get first-hand information and in-depth analysis!
