It is important to analyze the market from a broader perspective. 💻
By observing the percentage of Bitcoin held for more than a year (based on realized market capitalization), past cycles (Phase 1 and 2) show that the market rose sharply and reached its peak.
However, in the current phase (3), the slope of the bullish trend is gradually flattening and the cycle is elongating. The main reasons are the introduction of spot ETFs and the adoption of Bitcoin by institutions and even some nations. Furthermore, in this cycle, every time capital starts to flow into altcoins, the market's bullish momentum tends to stagnate—a pattern that has repeated several times.
Unlike the period from 2023 to 2024, when Bitcoin dominated the market, we are now seeing signs that capital is gradually shifting towards altcoins.
Additionally, with an interest rate cut expected in September and the potential approval of spot ETFs for altcoins in October, the market outlook for the fall and winter of 2025 seems optimistic after the current phase of consolidation.
From the perspective of the cycle, any further correction could present an attractive opportunity.🔥
Moreover, a deeper approach would lead us to see more bullish momentum, favoring tokens that have a more practical focus in the real world.
The inflow on Binance Exchange shows a shift from retail to whales.
The on-chain metric Binance Exchange Inflow (Average, MA7) measures the average size of deposits coming into Binance. A low average typically indicates intense retail activity, while a high average signals whale-sized transactions.
Currently, the 7-day average is at 13.5 BTC per deposit. This is a sign that whales have become more active on Binance. Traditionally, Binance is seen as an exchange dominated by retail, but this has changed in this cycle. Since the beginning of 2024, the average inflow has increased from around 0.8 BTC to the current levels of 13.5 BTC.
This trend makes sense: Binance remains the largest exchange by trading volume, providing the liquidity that whales need to execute large orders efficiently without significant slippage.
