1. Accumulation Phase - Silent Lurking
As the bull market begins, the heat for BTC and ETH rises, but altcoins remain dead silent. At this time, the main players won’t make a big show; instead, they quietly accumulate their positions. The market appears sideways, with false dips, occasionally dropping a few bearish candles to shake out impatient retail investors. Their logic is simple: the cleaner the chips, the less effort required for the subsequent rally.
2. Washout Phase - A Horror Movie
Once the positions are sufficiently accumulated, it’s time for some 'dramatic effect.' The main players like to crash the market, dropping 20% or 30%, leaving short-term traders in complete despair, while social media is filled with bearish sentiment. What happens next? The weak hands flee, the chips are collected; at the same time, the turnover rate of the chips increases, and the main players lock up their chips more securely.
3. Rally Phase - Fireworks Display
Only at this stage does it get exciting. A massive bullish candle erupts, causing the community to explode, KOLs and media start to stir the pot, and various narratives flood in. You will notice that the previously quiet groups suddenly come alive; everyone starts calling trades, averaging down, and adding positions. This is actually the 'emotional trigger point' that the main players set up in advance. Retail investors FOMO in, and with a gentle push from the main players, the coin price can skyrocket.
4. Distribution Phase - Plot Twist
After the climax comes the harvest. The main players won’t crash the market with a single bearish candle; instead, they pull up while selling, washing out while running, leaving retail investors to take the fall. You will notice: good news is everywhere, but prices start to surge and then retreat; the news is increasingly exciting, yet the volume shrinks. By the time everyone realizes 'why can't it keep going up,' the main players have already completed their final distribution.
5. Harvest Cycle - Retail Investors are Always in the Script
The biggest truth of each bull market is: the main players always win, and retail investors always lose. Why? Because the weaknesses of retail investors are written in their DNA - greed and fear. They are afraid to buy when prices rise and afraid to hold when prices drop; chasing highs and selling lows is their daily routine.
The main players have long seen through all of this, so they can repeatedly harvest with the same script each round: during the accumulation phase, retail investors find it boring and choose to leave; during the washout phase, they are scared off and give up their low-priced chips; during the rally phase, retail investors enthusiastically FOMO in, chasing high prices; during the distribution phase, retail investors are fully leveraged and end up taking the losses.
The Prince has always said that a bull market is not a paradise for retail investors, but an ATM for the main players. Retail investors losing money in every cycle is not a market problem; it is a fixed outcome.