Quick summary

$ADA is trading around ~0.847 USDT in the 1H frame, indicating a slight accumulation phase after the previous volatility; the current short-term structure is neutral → slightly leaning bearish as the price is below the short MA and MA25 on the chart. Fundamentally, recent protocol upgrades (e.g., Alonzo V2, layer-2 initiatives) create a bullish long-term foundation, but short-term momentum is unclear — entries should prioritize retest or small scale-in.

Technical analysis

Current price: ~0.847 USDT.

Short/Medium/Long MA (1H): MA7 ≈ 0.8503, MA25 ≈ 0.8585, MA99 ≈ 0.8596 — price is below MA7 & MA25, indicating a slightly weak short-term trend.

RSI (1H): ~41 — neutral/slightly weak momentum, not giving clear oversold/overbought signals.

Nearby support: 0.82 — 0.825 (local bottom area, reasonable retest area). → Suggested SL: 0.79 USDT (a fixed level, below the local bottom to avoid noise sweep).

Resistance: 0.877–0.90 (short-term MA/resistance area), previous swing high ~0.964 (expansion target if breakout).

Market structure & on-chain

Cardano still has significant staking participation and on-chain activity; network upgrades (e.g., Alonzo V2, layer-2 solutions like Hydra) are being implemented/promised to improve scalability and attract long-term investors — this is a noteworthy fundamental driver for ADA. However, on-chain activity and liquidity fluctuate with market cycles, so short-term cash flow may lack sustainability.

Trading strategy

Entry (scale-in):

Conservative plan (recommended): 0.820 — 0.835 USDT (buy on retest of support area).

Proactive plan (aggressive): 0.845 — 0.855 USDT (buy on probing if accepting pullback risk).

Stop-loss: 0.79 USDT.

Take-profit:

TP1: 0.877 — gradually take profit at nearby resistance.

TP2: 0.96 — expansion if breakout and volume confirmation.

Order management: take 30–50% profit at TP1; move SL up to breakeven after taking part profit; only hold the remainder when there is a breakout above 0.90 with increasing volume. If the price does not retest but drops significantly, adhere to SL to protect capital.

Overall assessment

Bull case: Hold above 0.82 and surpass 0.90 with volume → potential to test 0.96.

Bear case: Break below 0.79 → potential for deeper testing; risks come from general market adjustments and fluctuations in on-chain cash flow.

Note: protocol updates and on-chain information are a positive long-term foundation for ADA, but short-term trades should adhere to discipline entering/exiting according to support/resistance zones and volume.