Two common extreme views in the cryptocurrency world: one is that technical analysis is useless, and the other is mocking stock market technical analysis applied to the cryptocurrency sphere. Those who hold such views tend to have binary thinking and view issues in a one-sided manner. Here are my specific opinions.

Regarding the view that 'stock market technical analysis is not applicable to cryptocurrency': Participants in the cryptocurrency market and major institutions mostly come from traditional markets such as stocks, gold, and oil; the cryptocurrency market is just a new investment target for them. Therefore, it is entirely reasonable to apply stock market technical analysis to cryptocurrency.

Regarding the view that 'technical analysis is of no value': Such individuals often do not understand technical analysis — its essence is the application of mathematics and statistics. For example, Dow Theory has a history of over a hundred years, and various forms of technical analysis have been validated over decades. If it were truly useless, it would have been eliminated long ago. This aligns with the logic of feng shui and the I Ching, which have persisted to this day; there must be a reason behind it, even if it has not yet been fully explained by science.

Most people who deny technical analysis do so either because of their own mistakes in application (lack of skill) or because they have been deceived by unscrupulous 'gurus' (which has nothing to do with technical analysis itself). It should be made clear that technical analysis is not omnipotent; it has limitations and varying degrees of accuracy. Taking Dow Theory as an example, a deep understanding and strict adherence to a trading system can yield an accuracy of about 80% (which is similar to my actual trading level, even higher when the market trends favorably).

In summary, the effectiveness of technical analysis depends on three points: first, whether one can grasp its essence; second, whether one can overcome human weaknesses and operate strictly; third, whether one can maintain a rational and calm trading mindset.