While monitoring the market today, I saw ETH fluctuating around 4400 repeatedly, and many friends asked me in the background: 'Is it unable to rise?' 'Can it still push up in September?'—don't rush to panic. Let’s clarify the market logic of August and then break down several core variables for September one by one. True large holders make decisions based on reason and evidence, rather than being led by short-term fluctuations.
Let’s review August: the pullback at 5000 was a 'washout,' not a 'trend reversal'.
In August, ETH surged from 3800 to around 5000, ultimately facing pressure and retreating in the 4900–5000 range. It may seem like it 'can't rise,' but several key signals can be captured on the four-hour level.
The lows of corrections are consistently rising (3800 → 4200 → 4400), and the overall upward structure has not been broken.
The selling pressure near 5000 mainly comes from previous trapped positions being released and short-term profit-taking, not from large holders 'distributing in bulk'—if they really wanted to sell, they would have smashed through 4200 directly instead of having repeated buying support at 4400.
Therefore, this round of correction is essentially a 'washout before a breakthrough,' aiming to clear floating chips and allow large funds to continue accumulating at relatively low levels. The current market sentiment has cooled down, which instead provides us with layout opportunities, making it more prudent than chasing at 5000.
In September, focus on two major variables: signals determine direction, and large holders are watching.
On a macro level: the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is the 'stabilizing force,' while regulation is 'screening' rather than 'eliminating'.
Powell's speech at Jackson Hole has already released signals—the interest rate cut cycle is getting closer. For the crypto market, this is not an ordinary positive development but a 'liquidity support.' Large holders understand that crypto assets are far more sensitive to liquidity than traditional assets; once the faucet is turned on, funds will inevitably flow first into core targets like ETH that have ecology and institutional backing.
As for regulation, there is no need to panic excessively. Any growing market will face regulation, but the purpose is to standardize rather than suffocate. Take the U.S. tech stocks or A-share new energy as a reference; after the regulation is implemented, the industry tends to move towards a healthier trajectory. As the world's largest smart contract platform, compliance for ETH is an inevitable trend (e.g., the approval of spot ETFs and allocation by listed companies), which will help clear out informal funds and leave behind institutions truly making long-term layouts. This is very beneficial for our trend-following strategy.
ETH itself: institutional holdings + ETF funds are the 'ballast stone,' and scarcity continues to increase.
Don't just look at the price; pay attention to the actual movements of large funds:
Recently, ETH spot ETFs have resumed net inflows, and giants like BlackRock and Grayscale are still actively positioning themselves.
More and more listed companies are including ETH in their balance sheets, and they are no longer simply 'holding' it but are generating income through staking, liquidity strategies, and other methods—this means ETH is transitioning from a 'speculative asset' to an 'income-generating asset', and the circulating supply will become increasingly tight, reinforcing the logic of scarcity.
Large holders are well aware: 'funds settling' is more important than 'short-term price increases.' Currently, the proportion of institutional holdings in ETH continues to rise, which is the core support for surpassing 5000+, not a bubble driven by retail following the trend.
September operating strategy: 4400 is a key watershed; two trends require two approaches.
True large holders do not make blind predictions; they only observe the performance of key positions:
If it stabilizes at 4400 (especially if the closing price remains steady for 3 hours): this is seen as a rebound signal, with the first target looking at 4600 (the high point of August). After breaking through, it can go up to 4750–4840; for these levels, it is advisable to take profits in batches and secure gains.
If it breaks below 4380 and the rebound is weak: do not hold on stubbornly; it is recommended to reduce positions by 50%, looking down at the support range of 4200–4300. If it really pulls back to this level, it is actually an opportunity to add to positions—but be sure to control the position size, only adding back what was previously reduced, and do not blindly leverage.
Special reminder: Don't wait until it 'completely rises' to chase it; large holders often position themselves on the left side. If it truly breaks through 4600, the cost has already increased; also, don’t go all in at 4400. Be sure to keep 30% cash to cope with unexpected volatility; this is a basic requirement for risk control.
To be honest: emotionality is the enemy of large holders, only rationality can seize the big market.
Recently, I've seen many retail investors chasing the price at 4800 and cutting losses at 4400, which is typical emotional behavior. We earn from 'trend money,' not from 'volatility money.' As long as the upward structure of ETH remains intact and institutional funds are still flowing in, seizing the two main lines of interest rate cut expectations and key support in September will yield a good chance of profit.
In the follow-up, I will closely monitor the support effect at 4400 during the trading session. If there are signals of a breakthrough or a breakdown, I will synchronize in the group immediately. Remember: the crypto market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks is a calm and rational judgment. Avoid following the trend or panicking to steadily reap rewards.
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