Friends watching the market must have noticed: Bitcoin has been stuck in the $93,000 - $110,000 range for almost a month! But few have noticed — this range has accumulated a supply of 1.2 million BTC since November 2024, accounting for 6% of the current circulation, equivalent to the largest 'chip accumulation pool' in the entire market in nearly half a year.
For short-term traders, this place is not a 'safe zone', but a 'life and death line': Either it becomes a bottom or faces a sell-off, and the next 10 days are likely to show the direction!
1. Why are holders not selling despite losses increasing? On-chain data hides the mystery.
The latest data from AMBCrypto's CryptoQuant is somewhat counterintuitive:
This round is stuck between $93,000 - $110,000, Bitcoin's 'net unrealized losses' (simply put, the floating losses of holders) have expanded from -5% to -8%. Normally, this would trigger panic selling — but this time it's different!
Key signals are found in two groups of people:
3 years or more 'hardcore holders': The holding addresses exceed 120,000, with only a 0.3% reduction this round, far lower than the 5% during the bear market in 2022. Instead, 20% of addresses increased their holdings around $95,000 (equivalent to secretly acquiring 150,000 BTC);
Miner community: In the last 7 days, the miner sell-off volume was only 800 BTC per day, the lowest since 2024. To note, during the pullback last December, miners could sell 3,000 BTC in a single day.
Both old players and miners have 'held on', which has never been a 'collapse signal' in the past five market cycles — instead, four times it was a 'prelude to reversal'.
2. NVT golden cross signals a warning! Oversold signals suggest a rebound is coming?
Many people overlook a key indicator: NVT golden cross (using Bitcoin market value divided by daily on-chain transaction volume to judge whether price and network activity match).
As of August 29, this indicator has already fallen to 0.8, not only below the 5-year average of 1.2, but also entering the 'oversold range' — don't think it's abstract; just look at the history to understand:
In October 2023, NVT fell to 0.78, and 30 days later BTC rose from $28,000 to $35,000 (a rebound of 25%);
In November 2022, NVT fell to 0.75, and then directly started a rebound from the bear market bottom (from $15,000 to $42,000).
Of course, this is not a 'guaranteed rise certificate', but it at least indicates: The current Bitcoin price and network activity are severely disconnected, and as long as new funds enter the market, the probability of a rebound is much higher than a decline.
3. Which two levels should short-term traders watch? Two kinds of trends calculated in advance
The market is actually 'waiting for signals', and the next two key positions will be crucial:
If it falls below $93,000: Don't panic, the next support level is $88,000 — this is the accumulation area for major institutions in Q2 2024, at that time there was a buying support of 800,000 BTC (equivalent to $44 billion), which is likely to hold;
If it stabilizes above $110,000: Congratulations, the next target is $125,000 — but be cautious, this is the high point in May 2024, with 1,000,000 BTC stuck (equivalent to $55 billion in selling pressure). Don't be greedy when reaching this position; reduce your holdings first.
Currently, both short-term traders and long-term holders are actually 'holding on' — it all depends on whether this supply cluster at $93,000 - $110,000 will be fully consumed by buyers or broken through by sellers.
