'Data is the fog, technology is the sword, and emotion is the battlefield— the truth behind the crypto market crash lies in the interplay of these three!'

Last night's ETH market was like a Hollywood thriller: US GDP data exceeded expectations, unemployment claims were lower than expected, and the economy seemed to be doing well. Logically, the crypto market should be riding high with the US stock market, right? But ETH first surged to $4610 to pretend to rise, then turned around and 'free-fell' to $4425, a $200 waterfall that directly caused countless liquidations!
This is not 'positive data', it's clearly 'the main force digging a hole'—the market uses the most brutal way to tell us: When everyone understands the logic, the opportunity is already gone; the real opportunities are often hidden in the 'uncommon sense' cracks.

Economic data is 'good enough to cause panic': Why did the positive news turn into a negative?

Last night, the US GDP was revised up from 3.1% to 3.3%, and unemployment claims were at 229,000 (lower than the expected 230,000). Normally, this data would cause the dollar index to soar and US stocks to celebrate. But what about the crypto market? ETH first rose to $4610, then directly 'dove'—why?
My view: The better the data, the more the market fears the Fed's 'extreme hawkishness'. Rising short-term treasury yields and a strengthening dollar directly crush the 'bullish confidence' of risk assets. But more critically, the main funds exploited retail investors' 'inertia of thought'—everyone thinks 'good data = crypto rise', and as a result, the main force goes short, creating a 'bull trap' and catching those who chase the rise.


The technical aspect has long been 'exposed': $4600 is the line between life and death!

Data is the ignition, but the technical aspect is the 'time bomb'. Yesterday afternoon, ETH oscillated repeatedly in the $4580-$4620 area, seemingly 'stable', but actually hiding danger:

  • 4-hour chart: Price has broken the ascending channel, the 100-hour moving average is suppressing, and the MACD dead cross confirms a bearish outlook;

  • Key point: $4400 is the dividing line for bulls and bears; a break below means 'bearish celebration';

  • Divergence between volume and price: During the rebound, the trading volume shrinks, indicating weak buying pressure, and the main force is 'luring in to sell off'.
    Last nightMy operation: I entered a short position directly near $4610, with a stop loss at $4650 (to guard against pin bars), targeting $4500 first, then looking down to the $4450-$4400 area. The result verified the market: ETH dropped to a low of $4425, and the short position easily earned $200!

What should we do now? Opportunities lie in 'panic'!

Current ETH price is $4480, the 4-hour chart is still below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with key support in the $4440-$4400 area; a break below that looks to $4350-$4300; resistance above is at $4520-$4550, with further resistance at $4630-$4650.
Operational advice:

  • Aggressive strategy: Light short positions near $4480, stop loss at $4530 (to guard against pin bars), target $4400-$4350;

  • Conservative strategy: Wait for a break below $4440 to chase short, or if it rebounds to around $4520, go long (target $4600-$4630, but beware of false breakouts);

  • Ultimate reminder: Regardless of long or short, a stop loss must be in place! The crypto market is highly volatile, and holding a position could directly go to zero!


'The market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks is the vision to see through the essence. Do you think this wave of ETH is a 'short-term correction' or the 'beginning of a bear market'? Discuss your views in the comments, and next time we'll reveal 'how the main force manipulates retail investor sentiment with data'! I am Shen Ce, the analyst who dares to speak the truth in the crypto world, follow me to avoid pitfalls and make more money!'#美国宏观经济数据上链