Data is the manipulator's sickle, and retail investors are the chives waiting to be cut'—last night's ETH movement perfectly validated this crypto truth. When US GDP and employment data collectively report good news, retail investors still fantasize about the return of a bull market, while institutions have already sharpened their knives.
Data Paradox: Does good news become the trigger for shorts?
At 20:30, US economic data makes a bright appearance: Initial jobless claims are 1,000 less than expected, and GDP growth exceeds expectations by 0.3%. Logically, ETH should have plunged, but instead it shot up to 4610, looking like a drunken dog. Retail investors are excitedly slapping their thighs: 'This wave is heading for 5000!'
Qing Yao's Sharp Commentary: This is the manipulators' '诱多 trap'! The better the data, the more institutions can legitimately push prices up to offload, while retail investors think they are getting a bargain, when in fact they become the bag holders.
4610 Short: Precisely targeting the manipulators' door.
At 22:15, we decisively placed a short order at 4610 with a stop loss set at 4520. Why did we dare to do this?
Qing Yao's Unique Secret Technique:
Volume-Price Divergence: At the 4610 price level, the single-day maximum transaction volume appears, but prices do not reach a new high, a typical case of 'bulls losing strength';
Institutional Signal: Bitfinex's giant whale account has placed a short order for 12,000 ETH above 4600, which is like shouting in retail investors' ears, 'I’m about to dump!'
Key Resistance Level: This position is the 61.8% retracement level of the golden ratio formed at the May 2023 high, and historical evidence shows this is a 'bear graveyard'.
Waterfall Moment: US stocks opening becomes the trigger.
At 23:45, as US stocks open high in an instant, ETH directly enters 'free fall mode'. It plummets 154 points to 4456 in 15 minutes, and by 4 a.m. it steps down to 4425. Those brothers who chased after 4600 are probably crying with instant noodles.
Qing Yao's Divine Prediction: The opening of US stocks is the signal flare for manipulators to dump! Retail investors think 'US stocks up = crypto up', but manipulators use this psychology for reverse operations, specifically targeting the cognitive disparity to harvest retail investors.
Key Level Battle: 4440 becomes the line of life and death.
Currently, ETH is stuck at 4480 playing dead, but these two positions must be closely monitored:
4440 Support Level: If it breaks down, directly pursue shorts; this position is the 'old nest' of last year’s oscillation range, breaking through leads to a technical crash.
4520 Resistance Level: If it stands above, immediately reverse and go long; there are a large number of stop-loss orders for shorts piled up here, a breakout would lead to a collective short squeeze.
Qing Yao Reminds: Don’t be misled by the small rebound in the market; manipulators are drawing an 'oscillation cage' in the 4440-4520 range, just waiting for retail investors to chase highs and kill lows!
Core Truth: The better the data, the less likely interest rate cuts will happen.
Don't be fooled by good GDP and employment data; this actually weakens the Federal Reserve's confidence in interest rate cuts. Societe Generale has stated: 'Consumers are too resilient, Powell's dovish comments are being rubbed in the dirt by the data.' Now US Treasury yields are rising, and funds are rushing back to the dollar, making high-volatility assets like ETH naturally become sacrificial pawns.
Qing Yao's Sharp Commentary: The crypto world is a 'casino of interest rate cut expectations'; the better the data, the lower the probability of rate cuts, and the more risk assets should fall. Retail investors are still staring at the K-line, while manipulators have long been focused on the Federal Reserve's words!
Market Spoiler: 4350 may become a new low.
On-chain data shows that miners are secretly moving ETH to exchanges, with a net outflow of 127,000 tokens from exchanges? Not true, that's just long-term holders playing 'left hand to right hand'. What really needs attention is this Friday's PCE price index; if core CPI exceeds 0.3%, ETH will take another hit.
Qing Yao's Strategy: Aggressive players short at current price of 4480, stop loss at 4520, target 4350-4380; conservative players wait for a break below 4440 to short. Remember: there’s nothing new in the crypto world; the better the data, the more cautious you must be!
This wave of market activity proves once again that the crypto world is a battlefield against human nature. Retail investors like 'good data = rise', while manipulators prefer 'good data = fall'. To make money in crypto, you must learn to 'go against the manipulators'! Want to see how Qing Yao dissects manipulator tactics? Hurry up.Follow Qing Yao's homepage, where you will learn daily how to identify manipulator traps using 'retail investor thinking'!#美国宏观经济数据上链
