📉 Historical data warning: ETH often declines in September, with an average drop exceeding 6%!
According to data from 2016-2024, ETH's performance in September has been generally weak:
High probability of decline: 5 out of 9 monthly closes ended down, 4 ended up 15.
Significant average decline: The historical average return rate is -6.42%, with the median decline even reaching -12.55%.
Typical volatility pattern: If there is a major rise in August (like +92.86% in 2017), September often sees a deep correction (like -21.65%).
💡 Current market dynamics and opportunities
Although historical trends are bearish, there may be variables this year:
ETF capital inflow: By August 2025, the net inflow of spot ETH ETF reached $2.79 billion, institutional demand may alleviate selling pressure.
Q4 peak season expectations: Historical data shows that the fourth quarter is a traditionally strong period for ETH, with an average return rate exceeding 23% (continuous rise from October to December).
Key support level: If September tests the $4,200 support level, it may be a good opportunity for medium to long-term positioning.
⚠️ Risks and points of concern
Redemption pressure: Nearly one million ETH queued to exit staking, which may intensify selling pressure in the short term.
Federal Reserve policy: If the interest rate decision on September 17 maintains high rates, it may suppress risk asset sentiment.
📌 Conclusion: Rationally view September volatility
While historical patterns reveal seasonal risks, current institutional capital and macro environment (interest rate cut expectations) may weaken traditional models. Short-term investors should be wary of volatility, while medium to long-term investors can focus on Q4 rebound opportunities—technical analysis indicates that if it breaks the $5,000 resistance, it may challenge $6,800-$7,000 by the end of the year.
💎 Operation suggestion: Build positions in batches, avoid leverage, and pay attention to Federal Reserve policies and ETF capital flows.
