Ethereum (ETH) has reached a critical decision zone that could determine whether we see a significant bullish breakout or a short-term retracement before continuing. Let's analyze the two possible scenarios according to Elliott wave analysis.
🔵 The blue scenario (bullish)
In the blue count, we are following a bullish structure:
Wave 4 is likely to complete around August 19.
The next upward move was Wave 1, followed by a correction in Wave 2.
Currently, ETH is in a wave B retracement within an ABC correction.
👉 For this calculation to remain valid, Ethereum should stay above the 78.6% retracement level. A decisive break below would jeopardize this scenario.
⚪ The white scenario (short-term bearish)
While it remains bullish in the long term, the white count allows for another drop before continuing.
After a complete bounce of wave W and wave X, wave Y is developing.
Within wave Y, we are following an ABC move:
Wave A down ✅
Wave B up ✅
Wave C (five-wave sequence) is currently developing.
This would take ETH down to the same blue support zone.