I. Federal Reserve: Signs of loosening, undercurrents surging

Federal Reserve's number three, Williams, recently made remarks that hinted at a change in tone: last year, he asserted 'rate hikes must continue', but now he claims that the September meeting will be 'data-driven'—policy flexibility has become the core logic.

Inflation data still 'sings the opposite tune': Core prices are stuck at a high of 3%, still far from the 2% target. The minutes from the July meeting revealed divisions among officials: most are more wary of repeated inflation rather than employment fluctuations. But the market is alert: if August's non-farm payrolls exceed expectations or inflation rebounds, the Fed may quickly don its 'hawkish' mask again—gold plummeted by 8% in April 2024, precisely triggered by such expectations.

Currently, the Federal Reserve is like walking on a tightrope: it verbally calls for 'stability' while actually holding onto emergency plans tightly. Powell's dovish remarks in August have not faded, but let us not forget the lesson from the ECB's 'ease first, tighten later' approach in 2024, which led to the euro rising first and then collapsing. The risk of policy flip-flops always looms high.

II. Asian predicaments: The dilemma of Japan and South Korea

The Bank of Japan is caught in a 'self-destructive struggle': on one hand, it calls for interest rate hikes to combat inflation, while on the other, it quietly supports the bond market—after all, if interest rates rise by 1%, the government faces an additional 3.7 trillion yen in interest each year, making it hard to bear the debt pressure; yet, soaring prices have caused real wages to drop by 2.9%, and public dissatisfaction cannot be suppressed.

More subtly, after Japan canceled negotiations for a visit to the U.S., it proclaimed countermeasures while secretly reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds—the essence is the fear of widening the U.S.-Japan interest rate gap, leading to the yen falling below the 150 mark and becoming completely uncontrollable.

South Korea's currency defense battle appears even more powerless: the central bank clings to a 2.5% interest rate, yet the won has depreciated over 5%. In 2024, it plans to use $3 billion in foreign exchange reserves to rescue the market, but in just one month, reserves shrank by $6 billion, only resulting in a brief rebound; this year, the same tactics have been employed with even poorer results—under dollar hegemony, small countries often fall into a cycle of 'the more they rescue, the more they fall'.

III. Emerging Markets: Some break through, some hold on

Brazil takes the lead in confronting the dollar: The finance minister bluntly states that 'the weaponization of the dollar is accelerating its retreat', with data to prove it—global central banks are set to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold in 2024, and another 244 tons in Q1 2025, with the dollar reserve ratio dropping to 58%, making the trend of de-dollarization more evident.

Russia is caught in a 'expectation gap' dilemma: The finance minister claims a 1.5% economic growth for 2025, but the market generally expects only 0.8%-1.2%. This deviation is behind the energy dumping under political pressure, which could disrupt the global supply chain.

Emerging markets are being 'forced to choose sides': India calls for 'self-reliance', while Indonesia's stock market plummets due to political turmoil. With Trump's tariffs looming overhead, those without core competitiveness find it difficult to withstand the impact.

IV. Investment insights: See through the actions, ignore the noise

Three key signals:

Inconsistent policies: The Bank of Japan calls for interest rate hikes but supports the bond market, replicating the 2024 ECB's 'hawkish plus secret bond purchases' strategy, with the risk of monetary turbulence becoming apparent;

Data 'watered down': Russia's GDP expectations are disconnected from the market, with deviations often indicating worse fundamentals (such as the actual contraction of energy exports after the Russia-Ukraine conflict);

Market rescue is only a temporary fix: South Korea is pouring money into foreign exchange to stabilize its currency but is sinking deeper, highlighting that small countries, caught in the tidal wave of the dollar, only have 'band-aids' left in their toolbox.

V. Practical strategies: Focus on core variables, hit the right rhythm

Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve: Don't listen to empty words, look at the data. Whether core PCE can break 2.5% and whether August's non-farm payrolls are below 150,000 are the real turning points.

Watch the Bank of Japan: Skip the interest rate hike slogans, whether the Ministry of Finance truly reduces ultra-long bond issuance is more practical than mere posturing;

South Korean risks: If capital outflows occur, beware of a 'combination of interest rate hikes and foreign exchange controls' (refer to the intervention model of Q4 2023);

Gold logic: Global central banks net purchased 244 tons of gold in the first quarter to provide a floor. The more chaotic the policies, the crazier the demand for safe havens, with a target of $4,000 hiding support.

The 'words' and 'actions' of policymakers often conceal signals of a turning point. When no one is buying Japanese government bonds while the Federal Reserve is on the sidelines, and when South Korea's rescue efforts are exhausted—these moments of tension are precisely when opportunities knock. Just like gold's comeback in 2024 under increased central bank holdings, the wealth code is awaiting decoding in the market storm of 2025.