As the cryptocurrency market gradually stabilizes after months of adjustment, Dogecoin (DOGE) once again attracts the attention of technical analysts. Two renowned chart analysts – Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) and Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow) – believe that signals on the larger time frame are converging, creating a setup similar to the strongest breakout phases of DOGE in previous cycles.

🔑 Repeating Cycle Structure: Wedge, Retest, and Fibonacci

According to the monthly chart published by Kevin, Dogecoin typically undergoes three main phases in each cycle:

  1. Accumulation and adjustment in a falling wedge model.

  2. Breaking the model and successfully retesting – the price surpasses the downward trendline, then returns to check the old resistance line and turns it into support.

  3. Exploding in a push wave, aiming for Fibonacci extension levels of 1.618 – which has been a standard target in previous acceleration phases.

At this moment, DOGE has completed step 2: breaking out of the multi-month wedge, successfully retesting, and bouncing back. On the monthly frame, the price is trading around $0.23, above the old wedge ceiling and below horizontal resistance levels.

📊 The Decisive Role of Momentum

The key point in Kevin's analysis is Stoch RSI and the monthly RSI:

  • Stoch RSI: is crossing up from the oversold zone (13 points). Kevin emphasizes: “Whenever DOGE has Stoch RSI crossing up out of a bear market phase, accompanied by a rising monthly RSI, the price has always witnessed vertical surges.”

  • Monthly RSI: is maintaining a 'higher lows' pattern – each low is higher than the previous one, indicating long-term strength is gradually accumulating.

👉 According to Kevin, a necessary condition to confirm a major upward trend is for Stoch RSI to surpass and hold above the 20 threshold while RSI maintains a gradual upward pattern.

🌍 Intermarket Context

Kevin also emphasizes the role of major assets:

  • BTC needs to maintain an upward trend without losing steam.

  • ETH must enter the price discovery phase.

  • The BTC Dominance index needs to decrease, allowing capital to rotate into altcoins – including DOGE.

“If these conditions are met, DOGE could very well witness the largest explosion of this cycle,” Kevin asserts.

☁️ Ichimoku Perspective: Support & Breakout Momentum

At the same time, Cantonese Cat uses the 2-week chart with Ichimoku Cloud to monitor DOGE's trend transformation process.

  • DOGE has bounced from the cloud (cloud bounce).

  • The Tenkan line (green line) has been reclaimed as support.

  • Currently, DOGE is striving to break above the top of the green cloud ahead.

In Ichimoku language, this series of actions represents the transition from a correction phase to an upward trend – matching the scenario Kevin mentioned.

🎯 Price Targets in the New Cycle

If momentum is confirmed and the market context supports it, Kevin sets three Fibonacci extension levels for DOGE in this cycle:

  • 1.618 → $3.97

  • 1.65 → $4.33

  • 1.703 → $5.00

In previous cycles, DOGE has reached Fibonacci extension targets after breaking out of wedges. Therefore, these are considered important reference points in the upcoming phase.

📌 Conclusion

Dogecoin is at a crucial crossroads:

  • Technically, the wedge breakout structure and successful retest have been completed.

  • Regarding momentum, Stoch RSI and RSI are converging to prepare for a strong rebound.

  • In terms of the overall market, DOGE needs support from BTC, ETH, and altcoin capital.

If all factors align, DOGE's acceleration could very well target price levels from $3.97 to $5.00, significantly higher than the current $0.223 range.