The quieter the market, the more vigilant you should be against the undercurrents—tonight's crypto market is likely the last calm before a storm.

On August 28th at 8 PM Beijing time, after the release of the US initial jobless claims data, the market reacted surprisingly calmly: the number of unemployed decreased slightly to 229,000, lower than expected, but ETH price only fluctuated slightly. Behind this unusual phenomenon lie three truths that must be told:

News aspect

The data 'looks good, but is actually hollow.' Although the number of unemployed has decreased, companies have long entered a 'no hiring, no layoffs' stalemate—over the past three months, the monthly job additions have only been 35,000, far less than the same period last year. More critically, consumer confidence in the job market has fallen to a four-and-a-half-year low. It’s like a person who appears calm on the surface but is already panicking inside.

ETH is standing on the edge of a cliff. Technically, $4680 is like a solid wall, repeatedly tested without success, with $4500 being the key support level. Once it breaks, it will continue to extend down to the support level of $4310. Even more dangerously, both the MACD and parabolic indicators are issuing bearish signals, and the bulls are like a strong bowstring, ready to snap at any moment.

The market is waiting for the 'trigger.' Tonight's calm may be building up for a big move—all eyes are on the direction after the US stock market opens tonight, and even more on tomorrow's US core PCE price index, the 'ultimate bomb.' If the data continues to be weak, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September will soar, and the crypto market tends to 'react to the wind,' potentially causing the $4500 defense line to collapse in an instant.

How to operate tonight

Aggressive fans can short at the current price of $4610, targeting $4550 first, and if it breaks, look for $4500.

Conservative fans can wait for the US stock market to open; if it breaks the key level of $4580, short directly. If it stabilizes at $4630, go long directly, targeting the pressure level of $4690, and if it breaks, look for $4750.

When the market is quiet enough to hear a pin drop, it is often the most dangerous moment. "Tonight at 21:30, watch the US stock market open, don’t be fooled by the calm facade. Want to know if tonight ETH will be 'bloodbath' or 'counterattack'? #比特币巨鲸换仓以太坊

Still the same saying, feeling lost and helpless about when to enter the market? Follow Long Ge, and I will guide you through the market's challenges.