Anna-汤圆 蓝鸟会
--
Is the bull market still on?
Recently, there have been quite a few voices in the community saying that the "bull tail" has arrived, with the market only left with ETH leading a group of altcoins in a final frenzy, while large funds are quietly unloading. My perspective on this is slightly different.
1️⃣ Emotional Aspect
At the true end of a bull market, it is often characterized by everyone chasing prices, a complete FOMO in emotions, and the market completely losing its rationality. From the current atmosphere, we are far from reaching that "crazy to the point of losing control" state. Long-term indicators have also not triggered the typical signals of a bull tail. It should be noted that this round of market movement is different from the previous cycle, influenced by the previous liquidity surge, and the rhythm itself is delayed; simply relying on time to judge the bull tail is not reliable.
2️⃣ Financial Aspect
Increased volatility around interest rate cuts is normal, but it does not signify the end of a bull market. The difference now is that the sources of funds are more rational; many traditional institutions and "old money" are gradually entering the market. They are more focused on asset allocation, viewing Crypto as a hedging and diversification tool. For them, allocating BTC and ETH is the first step, and they will not heavily invest in altcoins right away. This is also why a true "altcoin season" may still need to wait.
3️⃣ Macroeconomic Logic
Interest rate cuts are not an end, but rather a beginning. There is a time lag between the Federal Reserve signaling and the actual arrival of funds; this window period is exactly their opportunity to gradually build positions. At the same time, during interest rate cut cycles, the U.S. often supports the development of the crypto industry more, as the expansion of stablecoins and the crypto market can bring in more buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, which they greatly need.
4️⃣ Future Market Outlook
Personally, I believe BTC may experience a wave of fluctuation and adjustment within the interest rate cut window, and a dip to around 92,000 would not be surprising; this could actually be a better entry point. ETH will also adjust accordingly, and if it can return to just above 3,000, it will be a very attractive buying point. As for the idea of ETH hitting 10,000 dollars in the future, it may sound overly optimistic now, but if the macro environment and financial logic continue to align, it is not entirely impossible.
Thus, the bull market has not ended, nor is it in the so-called bull tail phase. What we are experiencing now is more of a "fluctuation and turnover + gradual entry of funds" process. Instead of worrying about the bull tail, it is better to seize the mid-term opportunities brought by the volatility. $BTC $ETH
Recently, there have been quite a few voices in the community saying that the "bull tail" has arrived, with the market only left with ETH leading a group of altcoins in a final frenzy, while large funds are quietly unloading. My perspective on this is slightly different.
1️⃣ Emotional Aspect
At the true end of a bull market, it is often characterized by everyone chasing prices, a complete FOMO in emotions, and the market completely losing its rationality. From the current atmosphere, we are far from reaching that "crazy to the point of losing control" state. Long-term indicators have also not triggered the typical signals of a bull tail. It should be noted that this round of market movement is different from the previous cycle, influenced by the previous liquidity surge, and the rhythm itself is delayed; simply relying on time to judge the bull tail is not reliable.
2️⃣ Financial Aspect
Increased volatility around interest rate cuts is normal, but it does not signify the end of a bull market. The difference now is that the sources of funds are more rational; many traditional institutions and "old money" are gradually entering the market. They are more focused on asset allocation, viewing Crypto as a hedging and diversification tool. For them, allocating BTC and ETH is the first step, and they will not heavily invest in altcoins right away. This is also why a true "altcoin season" may still need to wait.
3️⃣ Macroeconomic Logic
Interest rate cuts are not an end, but rather a beginning. There is a time lag between the Federal Reserve signaling and the actual arrival of funds; this window period is exactly their opportunity to gradually build positions. At the same time, during interest rate cut cycles, the U.S. often supports the development of the crypto industry more, as the expansion of stablecoins and the crypto market can bring in more buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, which they greatly need.
4️⃣ Future Market Outlook
Personally, I believe BTC may experience a wave of fluctuation and adjustment within the interest rate cut window, and a dip to around 92,000 would not be surprising; this could actually be a better entry point. ETH will also adjust accordingly, and if it can return to just above 3,000, it will be a very attractive buying point. As for the idea of ETH hitting 10,000 dollars in the future, it may sound overly optimistic now, but if the macro environment and financial logic continue to align, it is not entirely impossible.
Thus, the bull market has not ended, nor is it in the so-called bull tail phase. What we are experiencing now is more of a "fluctuation and turnover + gradual entry of funds" process. Instead of worrying about the bull tail, it is better to seize the mid-term opportunities brought by the volatility. $BTC $ETH
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.