Brothers, stop being superstitious about those flashy indicators. To survive and make money in the crypto world, understanding MACD divergence is enough. This is not some mysterious 'divine tool,' but a practical strategy I discovered after two liquidations, losing 5 million in principal, from countless experiences of cutting losses — no theoretical piling, all lessons earned with real money.


During the craziest time in the 2021 bull market, when BTC surged to 68,000, I leveraged 5 times to go long with full positions, and within just a week, my account's floating profit broke 2 million. At that time, the community was full of voices saying 'to 100,000' and 'double your money on entry,' while I stared at the K-line chart, even dreaming of planning my life after profits. Until one night during a review, I suddenly found: BTC price was still making new highs, but the MACD red energy bars were visibly shorter — nearly 40% shorter than the peak from the previous week.
At 2 AM, I was staring at that 'weak energy bar' on the screen, and the scene of ETH being liquidated three years ago suddenly popped up: at that time, ETH surged to 4,700, also a price new high with shrinking energy bars, I held onto the thought of 'I'll sell once it rises more' and did not act, resulting in a 40% crash three days later, and my account was directly wiped out. This time I didn't dare to gamble, I gritted my teeth and closed all positions. The next morning, BTC opened and plummeted, and in the subsequent 53% drop, how many people cried out in liquidation, I still feel uneasy thinking about it.
This is the lethality of top divergence — when market makers pull the market, they have already presented the signal of 'retreat' through the energy bars; it’s just that most people are blinded by greed and can't see it.

1. Divergence is a 'little move' of the market makers; understanding it allows you to buy low and sell high.

During the SOL crash in 2023, the market was in panic, and many were shouting 'SOL is going to zero.' However, while flipping through the weekly chart, I discovered a key signal: the SOL price reached a new low, but the MACD green energy bars shrank by 50% compared to the last drop — this is a typical bottom divergence, indicating 'unable to fall,' and market makers are likely accumulating secretly.


At that time, I even specifically checked the on-chain data: there was an address buying 15 million USDT of SOL every day for five consecutive days, and the withdrawal volume from exchanges was also increasing, clearly indicating 'someone is hoarding coins.' I didn't dare to rush into a full position, instead building my position in three batches, adding each time the price dropped 3%, and I managed to weather the most panicked two weeks. Later, with the explosion of Web3 applications, SOL's price tripled from its low, directly earning back the previous 1.8 million loss.
Here, the core of divergence must be explained thoroughly:

  • Top Divergence: Prices are reaching new highs, but the MACD red energy bars are shrinking compared to previous highs (for example, if the previous high's energy bar height is 100, the new high only reaches 60), this is a signal of 'unable to rise,' and a decline is likely.

  • Bottom Divergence: Prices are reaching new lows, but the MACD green energy bars are shrinking compared to previous lows (for example, if the previous low's energy bar depth is -80, the new low only reaches -40), this is a signal of 'unable to fall,' and a rebound is likely.


No matter how harsh the market makers wash the market, they can't hide the 'tricks' of the energy bars. Last year, when DOGE surged to 0.32, I saw the energy bars shrink to 25% of the previous high, decisively clearing my position, and later DOGE dropped 65%, allowing me to escape a disaster.

2. The golden cross is not a 'buy signal'; the second golden cross is the real opportunity.

Many people rush in when they see the MACD golden cross, which is the main reason for being liquidated. During the ORDI market in 2024, when the daily line first showed a golden cross, I specifically checked the exchange's hot wallet data: after 20 million USDT came in, it was all withdrawn in less than half an hour — this was obviously market makers testing the waters, not really pulling up. Sure enough, two days after the golden cross appeared, ORDI dropped by 18%, and many who chased the rise got stuck.


The real opportunity often lies in the 'second golden cross.' My experience is: wait for the 30-minute and 4-hour MACD to both show a golden cross, and when the on-chain large transfer volume exceeds twice the average of the previous 24 hours, only then is it safe to act. Last year, during the AVAX breakthrough of 80 dollars, I waited for the 4-hour second golden cross while observing a sudden increase in large single transfers of 1 million AVAX, decisively adding 25% to my position, and within 12 days, it multiplied by 1.8.
There is also a strategy to handle 'volume strangulation' that must be emphasized: if the price reaches a new high but the energy bars are below 70% of the previous high, you must initiate the 'three-time frame stop loss' — if the 30-minute line breaks, cut 1/3 of your position; if the 15-minute line breaks, cut another 1/3; if the 5-minute line breaks, clear all positions. At the beginning of 2025, during ETH's fake breakout, I used this tactic to keep my losses at 4%, while several friends in my community lost 80% of their positions because they couldn't bear to cut.

Three: six rules learned from six years of blood losses, each worth 500,000.

1. Three time frames resonate to define direction.

When I analyze the market, I must look at three time frames: the 30-minute chart defines the short-term direction, with the DIF needing to be above the 0 axis; the 4-hour chart assesses the strength of the increase, with energy bars needing to be above 75% of previous highs; the daily chart locks in long-term trends — as long as the weekly MACD is above the 0 axis, occasional dead crosses on the daily chart are just washouts, no need to panic.


Last year, when BTC was fluctuating between 45,000 and 49,000, many people cut losses at the daily dead cross, but I focused on the weekly MACD still being on the 0 axis, holding through the fluctuations, and later when BTC surged to 58,000, I finally enjoyed the complete market.

2. Divergence + On-chain Data = Stop Loss Signal

When top divergence appears, don't hesitate; take another look at the on-chain whale net outflow — if it exceeds 3 million USDT, clear all positions immediately. In 2022, I was liquidated because I couldn't bear to cut losses when top divergence appeared, watching the whale net outflow 8 million while holding onto hope, and my account dropped from 4 million to 600,000, regretting it deeply.


During bottom divergence, don't rush to buy; wait until the exchange's contract long-short ratio is below 0.6 before acting — this is when retail investors are cutting losses, making it a great time to pick up chips.

3. Energy bars reflect 'continuous changes.'

Three consecutive red energy bars are getting shorter, and each is less than 50% of the previous one, indicating that the bulls are exhausted and a pullback is likely; conversely, if the green energy bars suddenly increase, exceeding 1.5 times the 30-day average, combined with a surge in exchange lending rates (indicating someone is borrowing money to short), this is the time to buy in, with a winning rate of over 75%.

From losing everything to 70 million, what I relied on was not technology, but 'anti-human nature.'

The worst liquidation I experienced, I printed out 5 years of K-line charts and covered an entire wall with them, staring at 15 cases of top and bottom divergence daily until my eyes ached and teared up. Now, even with my eyes closed, I can feel the 'breathing rhythm' of the energy bars — this is not a gift but muscle memory developed from being liquidated too many times.


More important than technology is position control: when the MACD golden cross appears, the initial position must not exceed 3%. Last year, when the AI concept was hot, I saw a golden cross on FET, bought a 3% position first, added 2% after breaking previous highs, and added another 1% if it didn't break on a pullback; my position never exceeded 6%, yet I ended up making 8 million.
The key is to 'learn to take a break': if you have three consecutive stop losses, it means you are against the market rhythm, and you must stop trading for 24 hours. In 2023, I had a time where I suffered four consecutive stop losses, stubbornly continued, and ended up losing more; later I took a two-day break, and only then realized I had completely misread the direction. If I hadn't stopped, I might have faced liquidation again.

Finally, let me say something from the heart.

MACD is not a 'predictive tool,' it is a 'mirror' to observe the actions of the market makers — the height of the energy bars reflects the 'breathing' of funds; when the bars shrink, it indicates funds are retreating; when the bars expand, it indicates funds are entering. When you can understand from the extension and contraction of the energy bars whether the market makers are accumulating or distributing, whether they are testing the waters or really dumping, making money will come naturally.


My peak account of 220 million to now 70 million is not due to any 'getting rich overnight,' but by letting profits run a bit longer and stopping losses promptly.

Remember: those who survive in the crypto world are not the smartest, but those who can control their hands, not greedy or gambling.

Follow me, many souls are lost on the crypto road, and only those destined will be guided.