At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, three sets of critical data will hit the market like underwater bombs: U.S. initial unemployment claims hit a new low for the year, Q2 GDP soared to 3.3% above expectations, while Canada's current account deficit set a new historical record. According to conventional logic, this 'triple whammy' should trigger a chain reaction of declines in gold, silver, crude oil, and U.S. stocks, but the reality is – HJ only dipped slightly by 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures even reversed to gain 0.2%. Beneath the seemingly calm surface, dark currents are surging wildly.
Why is the market unusually silent? Three major truths emerge.
Expectations overdraft effect: Over the past month, shifting from Powell's dovish stance to disappointing non-farm data, the market has long since torn apart the 'hard landing' script, instead betting on a 'soft landing' or even 'no landing.' Today's data is merely a footnote to this grand play, as institutional funds have already positioned themselves in advance.
Funds are gathering strength to launch: Trading in the Asian and European sessions is light, with large funds lying in wait like a dormant cheetah, ready to strike when the U.S. stock market opens with ample liquidity. This moment of calm is akin to the deadly stillness before a storm.
Technical life-and-death battle: The S&P 500 index is holding firmly at the critical support level of 4550 points, with bulls resembling a boxer pinned to the ground, battered but still fighting back. If this line is breached, a technical sell-off will surge like floodwaters breaking a dam.
Crypto market alert: This may be the last calm before the storm.
A truly dangerous signal is hidden in the shocking reversal of the Fed's interest rate expectations:
Interest rate cut expectations collapse: CME data shows that the probability of maintaining the interest rate in September has soared to 90%, and the number of rate cuts for the entire year may sharply decrease from three to one. This is tantamount to pulling the rug out from under the crypto market, which relies on a 'liquidity feast.'
Funding cost sniper battle: The wild surge of Bitcoin from $30,000 to $70,000 is essentially a product of 'interest rate cut expectations + liquidity flooding.' Now that expectations have reversed, leveraged longs will face liquidation crises, and the speed of capital retreat may exceed expectations.
Tech stocks influence crypto nerves: As a sentiment barometer for the crypto market, if tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla crash due to rising rates, Bitcoin will find it hard to remain unscathed—after all, currently, 70% of crypto investors are 'hot money' transferred from the U.S. stock market.
Qingyao's operational strategy: A survival guide for dancing on the edge of a knife.
Aggressive strategy: Go short directly at the current price of $4610, with the first target at $4550, and if broken, look down towards the psychological level of $4500.
Conservative strategy: Wait for a signal from the U.S. stock market opening.
If it breaks below $4580, decisively pursue shorts, targeting $4500-4450;
If it stabilizes above $4630, go long, with the upper resistance level to watch at $4690, and if broken, look up to $4750.
Final warning: The market is hunting down 'extreme optimists.'
Those still shouting 'Bitcoin will reach $150,000' at this moment are either newcomers to the market or 'stooges' sent by market makers. Remember: when everyone is celebrating, a crisis often quietly looms.
Please closely watch the movements at the U.S. stock market opening; the real storm may be brewing beneath this seemingly calm surface. Follow Qingyao's homepage, penetrate the fog with data, anticipate trends with logic, and be that always one step ahead awake person amidst the tumult of the crypto market. #ETH走势分析
