Three-Cycle Collaborative Combat Method: Set direction in 4 hours, find range in 1 hour, capture signals in 15 minutes
(Core logic comes from multi-period candlestick trading method, integrating quantitative standards and cross-market cases)
I. 4-Hour Cycle: Trend Assessment at the Strategic Level
Core Function: Filter short-term noise, identify medium to long-term trends, and avoid 'counter-trend operation' traps.
Technical Tools and Judgment Criteria:
Trend Lines: Connect two consecutive highs (downtrend) or lows (uptrend) on the 4-hour chart; if the price touches the trend line three times without breaking, the trend is strengthened. Moving Average System: Use 20/50 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA); when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA forming a 'golden cross', confirm the upward trend; vice versa for a 'death cross'. Case Reinforcement: In Q3 2024 Bitcoin trend, the 4-hour chart showed an upward trend of 'highs/lows rising together', and during the period, three pullbacks did not break previous lows, validating the bullish pattern. At this time, the 4-hour trend direction is 'buy'.
Operating Taboo:
During sideways fluctuations (price repeatedly fluctuating within a range), when the 4-hour chart shows no obvious trend, frequent operations should be avoided.
II. 1-Hour Cycle: Tactical Level Key Point Locking
Core Function: Under the 4-hour trend direction, accurately locate support/resistance areas, providing a 'margin of safety' for entry.
Support/Resistance Recognition Details:
Dynamic Support: In an uptrend, the rebound area after the price retraces to the 20 EMA on the 1-hour chart. Static Resistance: Previous high, historically dense trading area (identifiable through volume histogram), Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8%). Resonance Signal: When the price enters the 'previous low + moving average' resonance zone, combined with 1-hour MACD bottom divergence (price makes a new low but MACD does not), the entry win rate increases by 40%.
Practical Skills:
On the 1-hour chart, use a rectangle to mark 'support zone' (previous low ±1% price range) and 'resistance zone' (previous high ±1% price range), and only initiate 15-minute signal monitoring when the price enters these zones.
III. 15-Minute Cycle: Precise Execution at the Tactical Level
Core Function: Capture entry timing when the 4-hour trend direction and 1-hour key level resonate, avoiding 'false breakouts'.
Signal Filtering Principles:
Reversal Patterns: Engulfing Pattern: The body of the latter candlestick completely covers the previous one, and the volume is more than 30% larger than the average of the previous 5 candlesticks. Bottom Divergence: Price makes a new low, but the RSI indicator does not make a new low, and the RSI breaks above the 50 midline. Indicator Resonance: Golden Cross: 15-minute chart MACD fast line (12 EMA) crosses above the slow line (26 EMA), while RSI breaks above 50. Rejecting False Breakouts: If the price breaks through the 1-hour resistance zone but the 15-minute chart volume does not increase (below the average of the previous 5 bars), it is considered a 'volume-less breakout', give up entry.
Risk Control:
Fixed Stop Loss: Set 5-10 points below key levels (e.g., support level 18000, stop loss set at 17990). Moving Stop Loss: After entering, move the stop loss to below the 20 EMA on the 15-minute chart, dynamically adjusting as the price rises.
IV. Multi-Period Collaborative Rules
Consistency Principle:
Only initiate 15-minute signal monitoring when the 4-hour trend direction and 1-hour key level direction are consistent.
Conflict Handling: If the 4-hour shows an upward trend but the 1-hour chart indicates 'previous high resistance + top divergence' (price makes a new high but MACD does not), then switch to wait-and-see, waiting for confirmation of a pullback at the 1-hour level.
V. Practical Cases
Case 1: August 2025 Gold Trading
4-hour chart: Confirm upward trend (highs/lows are rising together). 1-hour chart: Price retraces to 20 EMA (support level $1950/oz), MACD shows bottom divergence. 15-minute chart: Three signals appear: 'Bullish engulfing + MACD golden cross + increased volume (35% higher than the previous 5 bars)'. Result: After entering, gold price rises to $1975 within 3 hours, yielding a profit of 2.5%.
Case 2: July 2025 Euro/USD Trading
4-hour chart: Sideways fluctuation (price fluctuates within the range of 1.0800-1.0900). 1-hour chart: Multiple false breakouts of the previous high 1.0900, but the 15-minute chart shows 'no volume increase' (volume below the average of the previous 5 bars). Result: Avoided 5 erroneous entries, preventing a cumulative loss of 1.2%.
VI. Summary of Mental Techniques
Three No Principles:
Do not trade when the cycle directions are inconsistent; do not trade on volume-less breakouts; do not trade if key levels are not reached.
Key to Improving Win Rate:
Review at least 20 historical charts every month, focusing on marking 'successful cases of cycle collaboration' and 'conflict-induced loss cases', and iterating strategy parameters (such as moving average periods, Fibonacci levels).
By using the Three-Cycle Collaborative Combat Method, transform 'trend, position, timing' into quantifiable operational rules, say goodbye to the randomness of 'guessing by looking at charts', and achieve stable profits.
Trading coins is about repeatedly doing simple things, persistently using one method over a long period, mastering it until it is second nature. Trading coins can also be like other industries, where practice makes perfect, allowing for quick and instinctive decision-making.
This year marks my seventh year trading coins; started with 10,000 entering the market, now trading coins to support my family! I can say that I have used 80% of the methods and techniques in the market. If you want to treat trading coins as a second career to support your family, sometimes listening more and observing more can reveal things beyond your understanding, at least allowing you to avoid 5 years of detours!
Follow me @加密大师兄888 There are many lost souls on the crypto road; seniors only ferry those with fate, students being accepted...
