Tom Lee (Fundstrat; chairman of BitMine) forecasts $5,500 in the coming weeks and $10–12k by the end of 2025. The fundamentals behind this scenario: strong inflows into spot #ETH-ETF in the U.S., growth of corporate treasuries (#Bitmine ), and network upgrades (Dencun → Pectra). Risks: regulation, outflows from ETFs, macro shocks.

What's new and why it's important

1) Tom Lee's forecast is confirmed by recent publications.

Lee talks about a target of $5,500 'in the coming weeks' and $10–12k by the end of the year (in some remarks — up to $15k as an optimistic scenario). This was mentioned in new materials from CryptoBriefing and The Defiant.

2) BitMine as a major corporate holder $ETH .

BitMine Immersion Technologies sharply increased its treasury over the summer and, according to CoinDesk, acquired over 1.7 million ETH (about $8 billion at current prices), making it one of the largest corporate holders of Ether. It was revealed today that ARK Invest purchased shares of BitMine for $15.6 million. The company itself claims to be the #1 ETH treasury (self-reported).

3) Demand from ETFs — the main driver of 2H’25.

Spot ETH ETFs in the U.S. will trade from July 2024; the regulator gave the final 'green light' on July 22–23, 2024. Since then, inflows have accelerated: July 2025 closed with a record $5.43 billion in net inflows; hundreds of millions were recorded daily this week. The largest fund, BlackRock ETHA, already has $16–17 billion AUM. This creates a stable 'buyer of last resort.'

4) On-chain fundamentals: staking ~29–30% of supply + upgrade effect.

After Dencun (March 13, 2024), L2 costs decreased, and Pectra (May 7, 2025) improved UX/validation and scalability. The share of staked ETH remains around ~29–30% — this structurally 'dries up' the liquid supply.

How realistic are $5,500 and $10–12k?

In the coming weeks — $5,500.

At the current price of ~$4.64k and stable daily inflows into ETFs (up to $300–450 million/day in some sessions), a move to $5.5k looks achievable without extreme additional news. Triggers: continued inflows into ETH ETFs, moderate weakening of the dollar/UST yields, increased L2 activity.

The horizon until the end of the year is $10–12k.

For this range, a 'combo pack' of catalysts is needed:

  • stable monthly records of inflows into ETH ETFs, where ETHA remains the leader;

  • neutral-soft Fed and 'risk-on' in the markets; (macro factor — assumption)

  • growth of corporate balances (BitMine as a showcase of the thesis 'ETH as a treasury asset').

Risks that cannot be overlooked

  • Regulatory surprises (rules on staking/ETF, issuer reporting).

  • Outflows from ETFs during dips (the effect of 'passive' sellers).

  • Market shocks/derisking (rates, geopolitics) — ETH beta to liquidity is higher than BTC's.

Strategy

  • Base: maintaining core position in spot/ETF, using corrections for additional purchases following the trend of Q4’25.

  • Tactics: staggered take-profits $5.5k → $7k → $9k; hedge risks with options on 'news' highs of ETF inflows. (Professional risk management practice)

  • Fundamentals: monitor: (1) daily and weekly inflows into ETH ETFs, (2) share of staked supply, (3) roadmap of upgrades/L2 flows.