“Market data is about to be released, and the cryptocurrency world is shaking with anticipation! Tonight at 8:30 PM, all three major data points will be revealed, and this grand performance in the crypto market is about to reach its climax!”
Canada's current account, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S., and the revised U.S. GDP are considered the “three major bombs” affecting the cryptocurrency market. Canada’s current account is expected to plummet to -19.4 billion Canadian dollars, far worse than the previous value, indicating capital outflow from the Canadian dollar, increased demand for safe-haven assets in North America, and some liquidity withdrawing from the crypto market, putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market like a boulder thrown into a calm lake.
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was previously 235,000, with an expectation of 230,000. If the reported value exceeds expectations, it indicates a weakening job market and highlights signs of economic slowdown. The market may believe that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are unlikely, leading to a decline in U.S. bond yields and an influx of funds into cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin potentially seeing a significant surge, similar to its strong performance during a prior weak employment report.
The U.S. Q2 GDP revision is expected to be slightly upwardly adjusted, but if it falls short of expectations, the market will interpret this as a slowdown in U.S. growth, combined with weakening employment, signaling a strong dovish shift from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar index may plunge, creating a “golden buying opportunity” in the cryptocurrency market.
I personally believe that the strength of the U.S. dollar is key to the direction of the cryptocurrency market. Tonight’s market is a “data war,” and operations must be strategic. The Bitcoin critical point is 113,800; if it holds, it can be bullish, but if it breaks, reduce positions for defense; Ethereum's critical point is 4,580; if it holds, there is a rebound expectation, but if it breaks, bearish pressure will come. Avoid going all in within an hour of data release; wait for direction confirmation before acting.
Tonight is a major test for the short-term pattern in the cryptocurrency market; navigating this precarious situation is like crossing a narrow bridge; success means celebration, while failure results in total loss. I predict that the logic of U.S. interest rate hikes will collapse, and the cryptocurrency market may welcome a violent surge, but first, preserving principal is necessary for any chance of wealth.
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