Technical aspect: Shrinking volume and oscillation, gathering momentum.
From the 1-hour chart, ETH now looks like a compressed spring:
Price stuck at a key level: Closing at 4550, it is exactly wedged between the 4470 support and 4660 resistance, with the Bollinger Band's middle track (4462) supporting the price, indicating that the bulls have a slight advantage in the short term, but the upper track (4670) overlaps with the resistance, forming a 'high-pressure zone', and cannot break without volume.
MACD hides secrets: Although DIF and DEA are still below the zero axis, the histogram has shrunk to 0.19 (red), indicating that the bearish momentum is exhausted—just like a car with the accelerator pressed to the floor running out of gas, it is easier to reverse. In historical data, this combination of MACD near the zero axis + shrinking volume is often a precursor to a trend change (refer to the example of an increase of 5% after a similar pattern on August 20).
Volume is critical: Shrinking trading volume is a typical 'wait-and-see signal', both retail and institutional investors are waiting for direction. But remember: The crypto space has never lacked sudden explosive stories—once it breaks 4660 with volume, the following traders will flood in, and a violent surge may reappear!
News: Economic slowdown becomes a 'divine assist'.
The U.S. data from early this morning is quite interesting:
The number of unemployed is 235,000 (expected 230,000), GDP revision is 3.0% (previous value 3.1%). The data is slightly worse but excites the market—because it implies an economic slowdown, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September skyrockets to over 80%!
The logic is simple: Poor economy → Federal Reserve loosens policy → Dollar depreciates → Funds rush into cryptocurrency for hedging. Just like the historical repeat of ETH rising 12% in a single day after the release of inflation data in October 2023, the macro situation is actually 'handing a knife' to the crypto circle.
Comprehensive strategy: Keep a close eye on 4550, bet on the break rather than luck.
My view is very straightforward:
Short-term bias is bullish, but must hold steady at 4550! This position is like a 'bull-bear arena', breaking may drop to 4470, but holding can lead to a surge.
In terms of operations: Gradually position in the 4550-4580 range, set a stop-loss at 4530 (to guard against false breaks), target 4600. If it breaks 4660 with volume, decisively chase the rise, short-term view at 4660 resistance.
Risk reminder: Don't be brainwashed by oscillation—ETH's funding rate in the last 24 hours is -0.01%!, indicating that contract players are cautious, don't go all-in on leverage!
The market always explodes in silence, just like jumping higher after squatting for a long time—Fed Chairman's speech at 8 PM tonight may ignite the market, follow my Twitter (@区块之钥) for real-time alerts on trend change signals!#ETH走势分析 $ETH
