In recent days, Ethereum has basically been stuck around 4600, testing the 4700 resistance level multiple times, but has not been able to break through.
Currently, the price is consolidating around 4590, with clear market characteristics:
Strong support below: Every time it dips to 4580-4550, it is quickly pulled back, indicating that the bulls are defending.
The 4700 resistance level has not been broken: Two failed attempts to break through, with many trapped positions, but the longer it consolidates, the more the chips are gradually digested.
Consolidation pattern: The longer it consolidates around 4590, the more explosive the breakout direction will be.
Probability deduction:
High probability of an upward move: If it stabilizes around 4590-4600, the main bulls are likely to choose to push up for a third attempt to break 4700; if it breaks through with volume, the space opens directly, aiming for 4800-4880.
The probability of a pullback followed by another push is also significant: before the breakout, it may first dip to the 4450-4500 range to clear positions, then rise again to break through 4700.
Failure risk: If it breaks below 4550 and continues to decline, it may trigger a chain stop-loss, with support below to watch at 4380-4420.
Operational strategy:
Short-term: One can lightly position long around 4590-4600, with a stop-loss set below 4550.
Medium-term: Wait for a true breakthrough and stabilization above 4700, then add positions to follow the trend.
Shorts: If three attempts to break 4700 fail, only then will it be certain to go short.
Currently, consolidating at 4590 indicates accumulation of strength, with a higher probability of moving upwards, but the main force is likely to make one more move of 'pullback washout → then push up', taking advantage of the retail investors' mindset collapsing before launching.
Once the signal comes out, and the direction is right, it will be a wave of hundreds of points!
