As of the time of writing, SOL is repeatedly testing in the 205-207 dollar range. A 0.48% increase is not considered "rapid", but if you look at the intraday chart, you'll find that every time it falls below 205, buying pressure quickly brings it back, with no signs of the bulls letting up, just a bit "slow" like it's gathering strength.
First, let's highlight the key points: Remember the two "critical levels".
Support level = Safety cushion: 196 dollars is the recent "golden support" - it bounced back to 200+ after hitting this level twice last Wednesday and Friday, not even breaking 198; further down, 185 dollars is the monthly "bottom line", which has withstood three tests solidly, and once touched, bottom-buying funds usually "enter the market in seconds". This is the "stabilizing pill" for the medium-term trend.
Resistance level = Charge signal: 207-209 dollars is the "hard nut to crack" - it was pushed down three times from 207 yesterday, and this morning it touched 206.8 before retreating. This position is a "dense area" of trapped orders from last week; however, as long as it breaks through 209, there won't be significant resistance ahead, directly targeting 215 dollars.
The news is "hot and cold", how will the market digest it?
Positive news is genuinely powerful: The new US government has just appointed the founder of the Solana wallet (the one behind the Phantom wallet) as a policy advisor - this is not just a regular "platform endorsement"! It's equivalent to the regulatory authorities handing a "certificate of trust" to the Solana ecosystem. In the past month, the TVL (Total Value Locked) on the Solana chain has skyrocketed by 65%, from 12 billion to 20 billion, and even small-cap tokens in the ecosystem (like JTO, BONK) have risen by over 30%. The signs of user and capital influx are too obvious.
Negative news was digested quickly: At midnight, the Jupiter exchange was hacked for 50 million USDT, and this morning SOL opened with a direct drop of 2.3 dollars (from 207 to 204.7), but within half an hour, it was bought back - this indicates that the market is not panicking over "single-point negative news", after all, Jupiter is a third-party platform and did not affect the Solana main chain. It's just short-term emotional fluctuations, so there's no need to worry excessively.
Technical analysis: The window for a trend change is approaching!
MACD: The bulls and bears are "in a tug of war": DIF 1.87, DEA 2.65, histogram -1.57, it looks a bit bearish, but the difference is particularly small (less than 1), akin to two people nearly equal in strength, with neither holding an absolute advantage. Next, it depends on which side strikes first.
Trading volume: Large funds are "waiting for signals": Today's trading volume is 12% higher than yesterday, but there hasn't been a "sudden surge in volume" (for example, over 50% more than the average), indicating that the main force is not in a hurry to act and is still waiting for clear signals of a breakout or pullback to avoid "chasing highs and cutting losses."
Bollinger Bands: The pressure cooker is about to "release pressure": The upper, middle, and lower bands have been getting closer over the past three days (shrinking from an original 10-dollar range to 5 dollars), which is a typical "sign of a trend change" - either it will surge upwards (breaking 209), or it will step down (retracing to 196); however, considering the moving averages (the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are all trending upwards, forming a "bullish arrangement"), the medium-to-long-term trend is not broken, and the likelihood of an upward trend change is greater.
Practical advice for fans: Don't panic, wait for signals!
Don't chase highs in the short term: It's currently fluctuating between 205-209, and chasing in could easily lead to being "stuck halfway up the mountain". If it breaks through 209 and stabilizes (for example, doesn't retreat for half an hour), it’s not too late to enter, avoiding being trapped.
Waiting to buy at 196: If it pulls back to near 196 and does not break below (for example, if the 1-hour K-line closes above 196), it's a good opportunity, setting a stop loss at 185, which keeps the risk manageable (a maximum drop of 5.6%).
Looking at the medium-to-long term, 230: As long as the policy dividends do not disappear (for example, no regulatory crackdowns in the future) and the ecosystem continues to grow (TVL keeps increasing), after breaking 209, 215-230 dollars is a high-probability target, and this trend has not yet ended.
To be honest: SOL is not in the "rapid rising phase" right now, but in a "bottoming accumulation phase". Patience is more important than chasing the rise - those who have it can hold and look for a breakout, and those who haven't entered shouldn't rush; wait for clear signals before taking action! Follow Ming Ge to navigate the crypto world.
