Today, ETH is quoted at $4561, and the familiar 'entanglement point' has arrived again — last week it just touched the resistance level of $4800, didn’t stabilize, and has now pulled back, hovering around 4500. Some say this is a 'normal rest' after rising from $3200, while others are panicking at the capital flow in exchanges: is this pullback an opportunity to enter or will it drop to 3800? Let’s break it down; the key signals are all in the technicals and 'big player actions'.
First, let's consider a big premise: weekly level breakouts are not 'a joke'; historical data shows a bullish stance?
Many people haven't noticed that ETH’s rebound from the June low actually broke a 'hard structure' — the downward expanding wedge on the weekly chart. Don’t skip this just because it sounds technical; I checked the past 5 years of ETH’s performance on TradingView: this 'wedge breakout' has occurred three times, and on average, it rose 42% within a month after the breakout, and the highest increase within three months was 65% (after that breakout in 2021, it surged from 2000 to 4800).
The key now is 'whether it can hold after the breakout': the current price is still consolidating above the breakout zone ($4200-$4300), which is a good sign. It's like climbing a mountain; after just overcoming a steep slope, you need to stabilize your footing at the top to continue climbing — $4300 is this 'peak support', and over the past 2 months, every time it dropped to this level, buying pressure brought the price back up; it has never broken below.
In the short term: 4500 is the 'buffer zone', and 4800 is the 'line of life and death'.
Zooming in to the four-hour chart, ETH is actually moving within an ascending parallel channel: the middle line of the channel is exactly at $4600, and now at $4561, it’s very close to the middle line, which counts as 'weak support'; stronger support lies below — the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are all clustered between $4220 and $4530, equivalent to four layers of 'safety net'. If it really drops, there may be capital to catch it at each layer.
Another indicator to watch: RSI is currently at 49, just above the 'neutral line'. When it surged to 4800 last week, RSI was overbought (above 70), and after the pullback, it returned to neutral, indicating that neither bulls nor bears have 'made their case' — moving forward, it either needs to stabilize at 4500 and push up to 4800, or break below 4300 and seek 3800; it won't just keep oscillating.
Here are key points for ordinary investors:
If it can hold above 4500 and the closing price stays above 4600 (the middle line of the channel), you can try a small long position, targeting 4800 first;
If it breaks below 4300, don’t hold on stubbornly. The next support is at 3800, and if it breaks further, it will reach the 200-day moving average at 3600 — at that time, the 'wedge breakout' scenario will essentially be wasted.
The most alarming 'big player action': $23.6 million in spot suddenly flowed in, what are the whales doing?
Looking at the technicals alone is not enough; the recent capital flow has been a bit 'unusual', so we need to be cautious:
Reversal of net inflow in exchange spot: Coinglass data shows that on August 28, ETH spot suddenly had a net inflow of $23.6 million — it’s important to know that the previous three weeks had all been net outflows, averaging $18 million per week. The historical pattern is: such 'sudden net inflows' are often tied to 'local pullbacks', because many retail investors or small institutions will transfer coins to exchanges to prepare for 'profit-taking';
Whale transfers causing volatility: In the past 7 days, there have been 3 'super transfers' — each over $50 million of ETH transferred to exchanges (equivalent to 250 million RMB per transfer)! This level of transfer has only occurred 4 times this year, and each time ETH fluctuated more than 4% within 3 days afterward. Now the market is guessing: are these whales 'cashing out after a rise' or 'preparing to pump'? No one can be 100% certain, but it will definitely increase short-term volatility (recently, daily fluctuations of 3-5% have become the norm).
The bulls and bears are arguing fiercely: can it reach $6000?
The market is currently divided to the point where 'traders at the adjacent table can argue'; both sides have valid reasons, and you can choose based on your own risk tolerance:
To be honest: this week is a 'critical voting period'.
ETH is currently stuck at a 'crossroads': there are only a few days left in August; whether it can hold 4500 and break through 4800 will be revealed this week — if it breaks 4800, September will likely aim for 6000; if it breaks 4300, we’ll have to wait for opportunities at 3800 or even 3600.
I monitor the key levels of ETH (4300/4800) and the changes in capital flow every day. If you're worried about missing out or being stuck, you can follow me. I will update if there are any unusual movements.
Last question for you: do you think ETH can break 4800 this week? Should we add positions now or wait for 4300?
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