Recently, the ongoing episode of former President Trump's bruised hand has raised widespread concerns about his health, and the impact of this event is not limited to the political realm but has also stirred turbulence in the cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, the potential selling pressure from Grayscale and the uncertainty of policies have followed suit, with Bitcoin (BTC) facing a severe test of multiple risks, and market panic continues to rise.
Health mystery triggers a chain reaction
On August 25, during a meeting with the South Korean president, Trump's bruised hand once again became the focus of attention. Although the White House issued a statement claiming Trump suffers from 'chronic venous insufficiency' (which has an incidence rate of over 40% among those over 70), the medical community raised doubts, suggesting that this condition may be accompanied by congestive heart failure and other heart-kidney complications.
More concerning is that The Economist revealed Trump's team has long concealed his health data. The market worries that if Trump suddenly faces a health crisis leading to a 'vacuum' of power, the policy support system he built for the crypto space will be directly impacted. After all, Trump is viewed by many investors as a 'crypto-friendly' political figure, and his health status is closely tied to the policy direction of the crypto space.
Deeply intertwined policies and interests
Trump's influence on the cryptocurrency market is not accidental; there are multiple core connections between the two. If his health status or political standing changes, it could directly alter the policy direction of the crypto space.
- Policy leverage: Previously, Trump vigorously promoted 'the $9 trillion pension fund entering crypto assets' and planned to include 200,000 BTC (acquired through confiscation) into the national strategic reserve, a move that injected strong development momentum into the crypto space;
- Interest ties: Public data shows that Trump's team has received over $37 million in political donations from the crypto industry (including major institutions like Coinbase), and Trump himself has been exposed to hold 'Trump Coin' (TRUMP), with market rumors suggesting that his family may control 80% of this currency (although this claim has yet to be verified);
- Power support: Vice presidential candidate Vance, as the 'first vice presidential candidate to hold BTC', is a key executor of Trump's crypto policies.
If Trump's health deteriorates or he exits the political stage, the Republican agenda of 'pension fund entry into crypto' and 'crypto regulation loosening' previously pushed forward may come to a complete halt, causing the crypto space to lose vital policy support.
Triple risks overlap
The crypto space currently faces a triple risk of 'health black swan + selling pressure + policy reversal', highlighting the market's vulnerability:
- Grayscale selling pressure approaching: Grayscale currently holds 620,000 BTC, accounting for 3.16% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin. If this portion continues to sell off at a rate of 9,000 coins per day, the selling pressure could last 1-2 months, which could likely trigger a spiral decline in the market;
- Leverage crisis: Referencing similar historical events (market fluctuations triggered by political figures' health changes), sudden news could trigger over $1.4 billion in liquidations in the contract market in a single day, further amplifying market declines;
- Concerns over policy shift: If Trump exits the political stage, the 'strong regulation' model during Biden's administration may return. Previously, the SEC has imposed over $5 billion in fines on the crypto industry, and if regulation tightens again, institutional funds may withdraw on a large scale.
Under the shadow of multiple risks, some analysts have issued warnings: if negative signals persist, Bitcoin could drop from its current price to $25,000, a discount of about 40% (equivalent to '60% off').
Investor coping strategies
In the face of the current high-risk market environment, investors can refer to the following strategies to cope:
- Short-term signal tracking: Focus on the White House medical briefings and Vance's authority dynamics. If there are signs of Trump's health deterioration or a policy shift, consider shorting BTC in the short term;
- Risk hedging operations: Buy BTC put options with a strike price below $40,000 while increasing holdings in compliant stablecoins like USDC to mitigate the impact of market volatility;
- Bottom layout opportunities: If BTC drops below $25,000, consider positioning in BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) and stocks of miners like Hut 8 to seize the opportunity for a rebound from oversold conditions.
'Trump's bruised hand may be the 'ticking time bomb' for the crypto space.' When the health risks of political figures, large-scale BTC selling pressure, and policy uncertainty intertwine, the cryptocurrency market has entered a 'high-risk window.' Whether it will lead to a collapse and plunder or achieve a miraculous rebound may soon become clear.
How do you view the current risks and opportunities in the crypto space? Can Bitcoin hold its key support level? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! The crypto space is highly volatile, and maintaining vigilance and precise timing is key to survival.
