ETH has fooled everyone in a sideways market! Will it crash? Sorry, the word 'crash' doesn't exist in my dictionary!
Data is the bullet, K-line is the gunman — when the U.S. unemployment claims data comes out, the crypto market shakes!
Today, ETH continues to stall between $4315-$4960, like a donkey turning a mill — going in circles but not moving forward. The current price is $4513, with a change of only 0.13%, and the trading volume is only 49 million, indicating that everyone is waiting for direction. The recently released initial unemployment claims exceeded expectations, which directly heated up the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. Last night, ETH surged momentarily but was pushed back by the $4960 resistance level.
Personal Opinion
The logic behind the unemployment claims data being favorable for the crypto market can be summed up in one sentence: Poor economy → The Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy → Dollar depreciation → Funds rushing into the crypto market! But the cunning main force specifically targets retail investors chasing the rise.
After the unemployment claims data was released last October, BTC surged with a $400 million long position on the same day, and then it really took off. Now, the $4960 resistance level for ETH is like a ghost gate; before breaking through with volume, all rises are 'paper tigers'.
My judgment:
1. If it stabilizes above $4610, it may test the $4960 high-pressure zone.
2. If it falls below the $4315 support, it will trigger a chain liquidation.
Unemployment claims data → Federal Reserve policy expectations → Dollar index fluctuations → BTC/ETH correlation → Altcoin frenzy or stampede. Recently, ETH has strengthened its correlation with the U.S. stock index, and if the dollar weakens, institutions may prioritize pushing up ETH.
Tonight, I will keep an eye on the U.S. PCE data, and I will provide real-time interpretations of the main capital trends in the village!
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