The crypto world is changing rapidly; ETH's overnight plunge teaches you a lesson!
"One day in the crypto world is like a year in the human world," this saying is not without reason! Just last night, the ETH market was like a roller coaster, going from a steady "good baby" during the day to an irritable "angry brother" at night, leaving countless investors dizzy.
Steady as a mountain during the day, 4580 has become the "stable anchor".
Yesterday during the day, ETH's trend was incredibly stable. As I mentioned in the square this morning, $4580 is a key support level, like insurance for ETH, keeping it steady. The market trend also validated my judgment, as the price maintained above $4580 throughout the day and slowly climbed upwards.
From a technical perspective, ETH has received EMA200 support around 4560 - 4570, like a strongman supporting it from below; it has tested this level multiple times without breaking it. What does this indicate? It shows that there is strong buying support at this level, like a crowd below shouting, 'Don't be afraid, we are here,' which is why the price can steadily rise.
A small incident at the opening of the US stock market showcased the 'stubborn' nature of ETH.
As the US stock market opened, there was a slight fluctuation in the market. The US stocks opened lower, like a gentle breeze, causing ETH to wobble and then drop slightly. However, ETH is no pushover; at the key level of $4580, it quickly stabilized, like a martial arts master balancing themselves after being pushed. By 21:40, it soared to around $4660, leaving those who were bearish in a daze. This also indicates that while the cryptocurrency market may be influenced by traditional stock markets, it has its own operational logic, and key support levels are not so easily broken.
At midnight, the whale 'stirred the pot,' and the market's resilience began to show.
At midnight, the market was suddenly disrupted by a 'Cheng Yaojin'. According to monitoring, Cumberland transferred 22,289 ETH to Coinbase Institutional, worth about $103 million. This large transfer was like a bomb thrown into the market, usually seen as a precursor to selling. The market reacted immediately, with ETH rapidly dropping from $4660 to around $4600.
But what is surprising is that the market is like an indestructible cockroach, incredibly resilient. The price quickly rebounded to $4640, what does this indicate? It shows that there is a lot of capital waiting to buy in, like a pack of hungry wolves pouncing on a piece of meat that has fallen.
A storm came in the early morning, and ETH 'plunged' under dual blows.
At 2 AM, the plot took a 180-degree turn. ETH suddenly reversed direction and began to drop rapidly, and behind this drop are two 'black hands'.
Firstly, the trend of Ethereum withdrawals continues. In the past 24 hours, there was a net outflow of 297,800 ETH from centralized exchanges, with Binance seeing an outflow of 148,700, Coinbase Pro 127,300, and OKX 14,500. A large amount of capital flowing out of exchanges is like water draining from a pool, reducing market liquidity. Although investors storing their assets may reduce market selling pressure, once liquidity decreases, prices are prone to large fluctuations.
Secondly, the market reaction after Nvidia's earnings report. Nvidia's Q2 revenue was $46.7 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $46 billion, which was originally good news. But the lukewarm outlook for Q3 was like a cold shower, dousing the market's enthusiasm. After the earnings report, Nvidia's stock fell by 5% in after-hours trading, which caused Bitcoin to drop by 1.25%, briefly falling below $111,000, and ETH also dipped to $4482. It’s like a relay race; when Nvidia stumbles, Bitcoin and ETH also take a fall.
Technical analysis and market sentiment: Caution is key.
From a technical perspective, ETH is currently trapped in a box, in a state of range-bound oscillation, with prices fluctuating between the support at 4400 and the resistance at 4570. Although a bullish engulfing pattern has appeared in the short term, the trading volume has shrunk dramatically, creating a divergence between volume and price, like a person wanting to run forward but unable to exert strength, indicating that the upward momentum may not be healthy.
Market sentiment has also become cautious. Recently, there has been a lack of obvious positive news, coupled with the influence of the macroeconomic environment, like a dark cloud hovering over the cryptocurrency market, putting pressure on the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. For example, many friends who were initially planning to make a big move are now waiting and watching, afraid to act hastily.
Whale movements: The market landscape is quietly changing.
It is worth noting that the behavior of the whales is changing. Over the past month, large investors have shown a significant increase in demand for Ethereum. It's like a "Bitcoin whale" that has been asleep for seven years suddenly waking up and selling $2.59 billion worth of Bitcoin, converting funds into spot Ethereum, and also building a long position in Ethereum perpetual contracts. This is like a "great migration" of funds and could be one of the important reasons why Ethereum has risen nearly 25% in the past month while Bitcoin has dropped 5.3%. This also indicates that the market landscape may be quietly changing, and we must keep up with the whales' pace to get a share of this wave.
At 8:30 this morning, ETH's price hit a low of $4465, and has slightly rebounded to around $4510. This roller coaster market has once again sounded the alarm: nothing is certain in the crypto world, just like the weather, it can change at any moment. Whale movements, fund flows, and traditional market correlations are like a big net, weaving together the complex landscape of the cryptocurrency market.
Today's trading strategy: 4520, the dividing line between long and short!
The current situation is very clear:
ETH has already broken below the strong structure at the daily level; if it cannot stabilize above 4520 (1-hour closing), it will have to test lower.
If you are aggressive, you can take a small short position near the current price of 4510, targeting first at 4400, and if it breaks, then look at 4300.
If you are conservative, don't rush to bottom fish! Wait until the 1-hour line truly stabilizes above 4520 before considering entering long; otherwise, it’s better to miss the opportunity than to make a mistake.
Remember: Trading is not about betting on direction; it's about acting on signals. The market makers love to target those who lack patience.
"The crypto world is like a battlefield, where opportunities and risks coexist. Only by staying calm and keeping pace with the market can one succeed in this game." Friends who enjoy this down-to-earth market analysis, don’t forget to follow @加密青遥 . Before the next wave of market starts, I’ll notify you right away! Loneliness is the shame cloth of the weak; click on the avatar to let top strategies guide you — ambition deserves a crazy return! #ETH走势分析
