I just stared at the 15-minute K-line of ETH for half an hour, and my back is starting to feel hot — the main force suddenly surged to 4643 in the afternoon, like poking a hornet's nest and then retreating. But in the gap of 4586-4587, a huge buy order of 23,000 ETH suddenly appeared (almost 10 million USD at current price). This momentum clearly indicates something big is brewing.

First, look at the technicals: the three major indicators are like a rocket on a spring.

The Bollinger Bands have opened to a '45-degree angle', and the middle band has become a 'booster'.

Open the 4-hour chart, and you can see right away that the Bollinger Bands' upper and lower bands are like a bow being pulled apart, with an opening angle exceeding 45 degrees — this pattern appeared last year when ETH surged to 3000 USD, and it subsequently rose 600 dollars in three days. More crucially, the middle band has chased up from 4300 to 4500, like giving the price a spring; every time it retraces to the middle band, it bounces back up.

The MACD is 'dancing above the 0 axis', and the red bars are about to break the screen.

The MACD on the 1-hour chart has long since broken the 0 axis, and the length of the red bars is longer than during the previous two rallies. The DIFF line and DEA line are spiraling upwards like a twisted pastry. Long-time followers know this combination of 'Golden Cross on water + expanding red bars' has appeared 8 times for ETH, and in 7 of those cases, it resulted in at least a 5% increase.

A volume reduction at 4570? This is the main force 'playing smart'.

When it dropped from 4643 back to 4570 this afternoon, the trading volume was 40% lower than during the rise — a typical 'washout signal'. It's like playing with a slingshot in childhood; the harder you pull back, the farther it shoots. The main force intentionally pushed it down to shake out those retail investors who panic at the slightest drop, making it easier to set up.

Three 'solid proofs' tell you: this wave is not just empty shouting.

1. Whales have swallowed 200,000 ETH in three days, and the wallet address is still in 'lock-up'.

On-chain data doesn't lie:

In the past 72 hours, five anonymous wallets each bought 40,000 ETH, three of which are new addresses, clearly indicating institutional 'disguised accounts'.

These ETH have not been transferred to exchanges and have all been moved to cold wallets — this is not short-term speculation; it is 'stockpiling'.

At the current price, 200,000 ETH equals 880 million USD. This money coming in is not just to make a quick 3% profit.

2. With BlackRock + Goldman Sachs' 'double buff', the positive news is piling up.

BlackRock's Ethereum ETF settlement process was completed last night, equivalent to having received an 'entry ticket', just waiting for the order.

Goldman Sachs is set to launch 'ETH structured finance' next week, reportedly already subscribed by private banking clients for 500 million USD — this money entering the market could at least push the price up to 4800.

The actions of institutions have always been 'quietly entering the village'; by the time you see the news, they have already completed their positions.

3. The 'coin shortage' at exchanges is becoming increasingly serious.

The ETH balances at Binance and Coinbase have decreased by 120,000 this week, the largest single-week drop this year. Retail investors are hoarding, institutions are grabbing, and the supply at exchanges is getting lower and lower — it's like concert tickets; the fewer left, the crazier the rush.

Critical risk point: 4570 is the 'line of life and death'; if it breaks, it could trigger a drop to 4500.

Although I am bullish, there's a risk that must be mentioned: if ETH drops below 4570 and fails to recover after the US stock market opens tonight, it could trigger a robotic sell-off.

The backend data shows that there are nearly 50,000 ETH stop-loss orders stacked in the 4570-4550 range (approximately 220 million USD). If this is broken, the chain reaction could bring the price down to 4500. But don't panic too much:

The perpetual contracts are still paying 'long position interest', indicating strong bullish confidence.

The exchange inventory is low, so there isn't much stock to crash the market.

The probability of a real panic sell-off is less than 30%; it's more likely just to 'scare the retail investors'.

Tonight's operation: 'Entry plans' prepared for three types of people.

Aggressive (those willing to take risks):

At the current price of 4585, directly try a small long position, with a stop-loss set at 4565 (run if it just breaks 4570). The first target is 4620, reduce by 30%, the second target is 4680, reduce again by 50%, and keep the rest watching 4745 — this position is last year's resistance; if it breaks, it's 'smooth sailing'.

Conservative (afraid of being trapped):

Wait to enter the market after stabilizing at 4650; if this level breaks, it means the main force is serious about pushing up. Set stop-loss at 4610 (40 dollars lower than the entry point, manageable risk), with a target directly at 4700+.

Conservatives (those wanting to hedge):

Use 10% of your principal to buy put options at 4700; if there is a real crash, the options can make it back; if it rises, losing a bit of option fees is not a big deal — it's like buying 'insurance' for your position.

Finally, let's emphasize:

Don’t leverage more than 5 times! Don’t leverage more than 5 times! Don’t leverage more than 5 times!

Set two alarms: add positions if it breaks 4650, cut losses if it breaks 4560.

Focus on the US stock market opening at 9:30 tonight; if the Nasdaq rises, ETH is likely to surge alongside it.

Such market conditions are rarely seen more than a few times a year. For those who want to follow the trend, it's still not too late to pay attention — when it breaks 4600 later, I will shout out trades in the comments section in real-time; those who act fast will benefit!

Those in the comments section clicking for 'charge' will definitely make a profit tonight! #BinanceAlpha is launching new features.