Bitcoin has the potential to achieve an average gain of up to 44% by Christmas, as analysts slightly downplay the impact of a deeper BTC price correction.
According to research conducted by network economist Timothy Peterson, published on platform X this week, a "positive" performance is predicted for the BTC/USD pair in Q4.
Target analysis of 160,000 USD for Bitcoin
Statistics show that Bitcoin usually records the weakest gains in September, a month in which the BTC/USD pair has never ended with gains exceeding 8%.
However, Peterson, who frequently compares performance across multiple bull market cycles, still maintains an optimistic outlook.
"There are only four months left until Christmas. How will Bitcoin perform during this time? There is a 70% chance of a price increase. The average gain is +44%," he summarizes.
If this average gain is achieved, Bitcoin could reach 160,000 USD in the last week of 2025, according to data from TradingView.
Peterson also acknowledged that these expectations are primarily indicative rather than rules, as there are many years that do not conform in Bitcoin's history.
"However, I believe that some years do not have market and economic conditions similar to those in 2025. I will exclude the years 2018, 2022, 2020, and 2017 as they are not typical," he concludes.
"This may skew the results towards more positive but less volatile performances."
Bitcoin is "ahead of" the difficulties of September
Meanwhile, many investors are not affected by the current weakness of BTC prices, as the lowest levels since early July have returned this week.
Trader Donny shared with his followers on X that BTC/USD is "ahead of" a traditional downturn in September.
"The rates may vary — but the results remain the same. The gains will be much higher," he predicts when comparing price action to the bull market of 2017.
Donny also noted that BTC/USD is mimicking gold after a period of slowdown, a classic relationship that has continued in recent years.
