Markets are laser-focused on Nvidia’s earnings release tomorrow, a pivotal event likely to shape sentiment across risk assets in the lead-up to the September 11 CPI print. With macro positioning increasingly sensitive to tech sector performance and inflation dynamics, this dual catalyst could recalibrate expectations for monetary policy and asset allocation.

Consensus estimates peg year-over-year CPI at 2.7%, in line with July’s reading. A benign inflation print either matching or undershooting forecasts would likely reinforce the narrative of near-term rate cuts, offering a constructive backdrop for equities and duration-sensitive assets.

Conversely, an upside surprise in CPI, especially if paired with underwhelming tech earnings, could reignite volatility and pressure risk markets into a more defensive posture. In this context, we advocate for tactical patience. Directional conviction should be deferred until greater clarity emerges from both earnings and macro data.