Over the past two weeks, the price of Bitcoin has dropped more than 7%, from around $117,400 on August 21 to a low of $108,666 this morning. Despite the price decline, some positive trading data suggests that market sentiment is improving. However, analysts warn that this could once again be a trap for institutions to take advantage of retail buyers.

Bitcoin Investment Psychology Improves, But Caution is Still Needed

According to an article on CryptoQuant Quicktake by author BorisD, the trading volume index of BTC on Binance compared to other exchanges turned positive on August 25, reaching $676 million. This indicates that Binance users have decided to switch to spot buying mode.

Notably, this trend has not been observed on other major exchanges. Since Binance is the largest exchange in the world by liquidity and users, the cash flow from this exchange is often seen as a reflection of overall market sentiment.

Currently, retail investors seem to be creating buying pressure. Although this may support the demand for BTC, it also creates an opportunity for institutional investors to push prices down, liquidating retail buyers' positions before the market continues its upward trend.

BorisD emphasizes that history shows when Binance users ramp up spot buying, the price of Bitcoin typically falls. Conversely, when selling pressure increases, the price of BTC often recovers. He explains:

This movement is a notable point between the behavior of retail investors and institutional investors. Retail buyers often act based on emotions and put themselves in the wrong positions, while institutions strategically design liquidity around these cash flows.

In summary, the analyst believes that while the increase in spot buying on Binance is encouraging, a positive delta does not always indicate a bullish signal. Conversely, it can reveal retail investor buying pressure, which may be exploited by institutions as an opportunity.

Will BTC Price Drop Below $100,000?

Analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin can establish a new all-time high (ATH) in the near future. Some emphasize that BTC must hold above $100,000 to maintain the overall bullish structure.

In a separate analysis, cryptocurrency analyst Alphractal noted that the BTC market seems to be preparing for the next major move in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index is showing signs of weakening, increasing the risk of continued price decline.

The Bitcoin market is also witnessing early signs of exhaustion as asset management company BlackRock recently sold off BTC, liquidating about $500 million of this digital asset.

However, some analysts remain optimistic, predicting that the all-time high (ATH) could reach $183,000 by the end of this year. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $109,841, down 1.8% over the past 24 hours.

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